Traffic at the nation's major retail container ports will see weak or even negative growth compared with last year for the next several months as the nation's economic slowdown continues, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Global Insight.

'Container traffic at the ports is a leading economic indicator because it reflects retailers' expectations for sales,' NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. 'With the industry expecting the slowest growth in half a dozen years, we're going to see little increase in cargo on the docks.'

With light traffic, little congestion is expected.

'Most ports are operating without congestion from the harbor to the gate,' Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham said. 'Seattle and Tacoma are threatened with near-term winter weather-related delays and are rated medium for congestion. But rail service showed continued adequate performance in January and apart from some weather disruptions intermodal rail operations are expected to continue to perform acceptably over the next six months.'

Ports surveyed handled 1.3 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (teu) of container traffic in December, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. The number was down 6.4% from November's 1.39 million teu, and 0.9% from December 2006. January was estimated at 1.28 million teu, down 1.1% from January 2007, and February is forecast at 1.21 million teu, down 7.6% from February 2007.

If the forecasts hold true, February will be the seventh month in a row to show a decline from the same month a year earlier as retailers reduced imports to reflect sales expectations. (August was down 1.4%, September 1.9%, October 3.5% and November 2.2%.)

February is traditionally the slowest month of the year for retail imports, and numbers are expected to resume year-over-year growth in March. March is forecast at 1.3 million teu, up 2.5% over March 2007, April at 1.38 million teu, up four percent over April 2007, and May at 1.4 million teu, up 1.7% over May 2007. June is forecast at 1.44 million teu, down 0.9% from June 2007.

The numbers come two weeks after the Commerce Department reported the weakest holiday season in five years at 3% sales growth and NRF issued its 2008 economic forecast calling for 3.5% growth, the lowest increase since 2002. NRF strongly supports legislation pending in Congress to boost consumer spending by providing taxpayers with rebate checks.

Seattle and Tacoma are currently rated at 'medium' for congestion because of the potential for short-term delays related to winter weather. All other U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker ' Los Angeles/Long Beach and Oakland on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast ' are rated 'low' for congestion.