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Canada August trade deficit widens, hitting Q3 growth
The trade deficit climbed to C$1.31 billion ($1.27 billion) as imports grew by 2.1 percent to set a new record and exports rose by 1.8 percent, Statistics Canada said.
The deficit - the 20th in a row - exceeded analysts’ forecast of a C$700 million shortfall. Statscan revised July’s deficit to C$1.19 billion from an initial C$931 million.
“The Canadian economy is still waiting for that growth rotation into exports,” said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.
“And, given the U.S. government shutdown and the deepening uncertainty over the fast-approaching debt ceiling limit, no one is holding their breath in anticipation of a quick revival on that front,” he said.
Consumers and a housing boom have provided most of the muscle in Canada’s economic growth since the 2008-09 recession but policymakers see that as unsustainable and are watching for signs the private sector is taking the lead through greater exports and investment.
A silver lining in Tuesday’s trade report was that in volume terms exports and imports rose by 1.5 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively, which will help the monthly gross domestic product figures.
But economists said the weak export performance could shave one percentage point off annualized growth in the third quarter. Scotiabank economists Derek Holt and Dov Zigler said exports were down 4.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first two months of the quarter while imports gained 2.7 percent.
“We have to see how September shapes up, but thus far, trade is looking to be a considerable drag on growth,” they said in a note to clients.
The Bank of Canada sharply cut its third-quarter growth forecast in a speech on Oct. 1. Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem said annualized growth in the third and fourth quarters would be in the 2 to 2.5 percent range. In its July forecasts, the bank had predicted 3.8 percent and 2.5 percent growth in the third and fourth quarters.
Imports in August hit C$41.08 billion on higher shipments of energy products, aircraft and motor vehicles as volumes rose 1.2 percent and prices increased by 0.9 percent. The previous high was the C$40.89 billion recorded in April 2013.
Exports advanced on higher shipments of energy products and mineral products. Volumes grew by 1.4 percent and prices edged up by 0.4 percent.
Exports to the United States, which comprised 75.7 percent of all Canadian exports in August, grew by 1.9 percent while imports rose by a mere 0.1 percent. As a result the trade surplus with the United States grew to C$3.99 billion from C$3.44 billion in July.
The cumulative trade deficit for the first eight months of the year was C$6.98 billion, the second highest January-August shortfall on record after the C$9.14 billion posted in 2012. (Reuters)
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