With its release of the study of the future, 'Delivering Tomorrow: Logistics 2050', Deutsche Post DHL is taking a far-reaching look into the future of trade, business and society. The study examines five different scenarios of life in the year 2050. These five visions of the future are based on a detailed analysis of the most critical factors ' including trade and consumption patterns, technological and social trends as well as climate change ' and estimate their probable impact on people's behavior and values in 2050.

'The pace of change has rapidly accelerated in recent years,' Frank Appel, CEO of Deutsche Post DHL, said at the presentation of the study in Berlin. 'In this complex economic, political and social climate, it has become practically impossible to make linear forecasts. In a world that is becoming harder and harder to predict, we have to expand our horizon and think about alternatives. We can devise robust strategies and set the right course only if we have gained an understanding of different perspectives.'

The development of the study was supported by 42 highly respected experts including Klaus T'pfer (former German Environmental Minister and Director of the U.N. Environmental Program), Fatih Birol (Chief Economist of the International Energy Agency) and Michael ten Hompel (Managing Director of the Fraunhofer Institute for Material Flow and Logistics), as well as leading representatives of such organizations as the World Economic Forum, the Gesellschaft f'r Konsumforschung (GfK), the Rocky Mountain Institute, the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies, the World Business Council for Sustainable Development and Greenpeace International.

The central finding of the study is a comprehensive collection of five credible visions of the future. They outline how different the world could appear in 2050 in terms of the degree of globalization, the extent of economic and social development, predominant technology standards and environmental conditions. The study describes five far-reaching, occasionally radical, versions of life in 2050. All scenarios share a common element: the broadly transformed role of logistics. Overall demand for logistics services does indeed climb in most of the five alternative scenarios. But the particular requirements placed on logistics providers and the special challenges they face vary widely from scenario to scenario.

The study, which is complemented by a series of multifaceted essays regarding various aspects of the future, is the third research project conducted in the Group 'Delivering Tomorrow' series. By publishing this groundbreaking series of studies, Deutsche Post DHL is striving to engage others in a dialogue about core issues that will shape the world in future decades. 'As the leading provider in this key global industry, we consider it part of our responsibility to intensively explore social and business issues that will shape the future,' Appel said in describing the rationale for the series of studies. The series began in 2009 with an examination of customer expectations in 2020. A year later, it delved into another important trend of the future ' the shift to more sustainable logistics.

The methodological starting point for developing alternative scenarios of the future in this year's study was an in-depth analysis of key factors and their linking to those trends that could mold the world in future decades. Unlike classic, isolated analysis and projection methods, the scenario technique used here with the help of the leading experts outlines the possible directions that the most important parameters could take and links them to scenarios. These possible directions were then discussed and evaluated during workshops. With this approach, various development paths over the next four decades and several complex versions of the future could be systematically and comprehensibly identified.

An overview of the five scenarios

Scenario 1, Untamed Economy ' Impending Collapse

The world is characterized by unchecked materialism and mass con