A flurry of grain export sales to China and elsewhere since last week, totaling about 2 million tonnes, is the latest sign U.S. soybean and corn prices may be set to rebound from four-year lows. Calling a trend for prices is often a fool’s errand, as recent spikes on rising political tension in Ukraine, a major wheat producer, ably demonstrate. But as both buyers and sellers hold back, the next move is increasingly looking to be upward. The futures market in Chicago, the center for U.S. grain trading, has already priced in an expected record crop harvest this year as temperate weather triggers high yields from corn and beans planted on more acres than ever. “For corn, it is going to be the largest crop I have ever had and when guys, 20 years, 30, 40 years older than me are saying the same thing, it really perks up my ears,” said Cory Ritter, a farmer in central Illinois. “We are not used to seeing the numbers that we are seeing.” Ritter is expecting to harvest 250 bushels per acre of corn this fall, up from typical yields of 195-200 bushels per acre. Those kind of forecasts have helped push corn futures down 29 percent from 2014 highs to hit four-year lows while soybeans hit 2-1/2 year lows earlier this month. Wheat futures have also tested four-year lows. Grains futures prices are now so low they have fallen past technical points which indicate to speculators they could be on the turn - where the market is “oversold” - making them attractive to buy. The relative strength index for corn, one of those technical markers, hit its lowest since at least 1973 on July 15, the same day that soybeans’ relative strength fell to the lowest since February 1999. Farmers are unlikely to bow to the low prices, however. Flush with cash after reaping high prices for their crops during the past few years after a drought, most growers can afford to wait for recovery. In addition, they have used some funds to add storage capacity at farms, including huge white plastic sausage-shaped bags that can hold grain for up to two years. Total grain storage capacity in the United States has ballooned by about 20 percent over the past decade to over 23.4 billion bushels, according to USDA data, largely keeping pace with rising crop output. So although storage is tight, and costs have just risen under CME contract rules, farmers can afford to wait. “Farmers are content to either wait for a late summer rally to make some more sales on or they are going to be putting it in storage bins and wait for spring prices next year,” said Brian Hoops, president of Midwest Market Solutions, a brokerage and commodity marketing advisory service. WHO WILL BLINK FIRST? Meanwhile, grain handlers, led by agribusiness conglomerates Bunge Ltd, Cargill Inc and Archer Daniels Midland Co, have also shown they are willing to wait, leaving end users such as food companies and exporters wondering who will blink first as they scramble for supplies. The handlers have kept cash prices at inland locations - a basis for other destinations which take premiums - at low levels as they predict farmers will have to unload crops sooner or later and they have enough supplies for now. Regulatory data indicates these grain processors and elevators have been slow to book crops for future delivery. Usually, after buying grain that they will store in their facilities, grain handlers sell futures contracts to insure them against any jump in prices before they can unload the supplies. But the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s most recent data shows that commercial traders, a category that includes grain handlers, have the smallest short position in soybean futures on record. For corn, the commercials have dialed back their short positions for nine straight weeks as farmer sales have dried up. The pick-up in overseas demand highlighted in the past week has rattled shippers at the U.S. Gulf. It signals that export premiums for autumn corn and soybean shipments at the country’s largest grain export region are due for an increase, traders said. Add to that rising shipping costs and it could be buyers who blink first. “Everybody’s short on capacity, the farmer’s not selling anything and the freight market is tearing higher,” said a U.S. export trader. (Additional reporting by Karl Plume; Editing by Tom Brown)