The prospect of normalizing diplomatic relations and lifting the half-century trade embargo on Cuba has prompted more questions than answers. Now the question is no longer about whether the embargo will be lifted but rather when? In the wake of several high profile prisoner exchanges between the U.S. and Cuba and President Obama’s announcement of plans to normalize diplomatic relations with Cuba, the future of the 54-year old, U.S. trade restrictions is top of mind for many. According to a statement from Customs and International Trade Law Firm Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, while the changes include some easing of restrictions on trade, the general U.S. embargo against Cuba remains in place and would require congressional action to be lifted. Initial comments from both Republicans and Democrats, however, indicate that prospects for such action are uncertain at best. In 2000, the U.S. Congress, with the President’s signature, passed legislation to allow certain exceptions to the long standing Cuban Assets Control Regulation – Title 31 Part 515. While the ban on U.S. imports from Cuba remains, a special license from the U.S. Department of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) does allow some licensed exporters and carriers to do business in Cuba. Specifically this change allowed for certain agricultural commodities along with other humanitarian goods and medical supplies to be shipped to Cuba. Since 2001, Crowley has provided regularly scheduled common carrier services to Cuba – all of licensed cargo. This has included an abundance of frozen chicken, livestock, apples, and dry food products; other humanitarian goods and even production equipment for the Concierto Paz Sin Fronteras (Peace Without Borders) Concert, the USA and Cuba World Cup Qualifier Game and London’s Royal Ballet. And for now, though some historic trade changes may be on the horizon, Crowley continues with business as usual. “Crowley has served the Cuban people under a license from OFAC for 14 years and will continue to do so with the same quality of service,” said Jay Brickman, Crowley’s vice president, Cuba services. “While we are evaluating perspective changes and will adapt our service to meet the needs of the trade, at this time, we are operating our regularly scheduled services normally. It’s business as usual.” But others with skin in the game, like the United States Agricultural Coalition for Cuba (USACC) who represents a host of 40 members including American Soybean Association, National Association of Wheat Growers, National Chicken Council, Cargill to the American Farm Bureau Federation and others are not sitting idly by. “While there is much detail to be worked out after the President’s announcement, we are not in a ‘wait and see’ moment,” said Paul Johnson, USACC vice chair. “For us, it is working closely with the administration and Congress to help craft policy that will take appropriate steps forward.” Johnson goes on to explain that the immediate impact of the President’s announcement is large – it has reintroduced Cuba discussions into the conscious of families across the U.S. “That’s huge,” said Johnson. “The landscape has totally changed since the administration’s announcement. While much work needs to be done, at least the possibilities are more tangible than they were just two weeks ago.” Projects & Credit However, Johnson and other experts agree that overhauling change won’t happen quickly. Cuba will remain a long-term prospect - one that’s not lacking in competition. Cuba has continued to do unrestricted business on the international stage. Its partners like Brazil, China and Russia will provide stiff competition to any U.S. interest seeking to do business there. In addition to combatting existing relationships are a host of other issues to be resolved like infrastructure and equipment investments from Cuba, an expansion of power for Cuban companies other than Alimport to purchase U.S. goods, the Helms Burton Act, which among other things says that the embargo cannot be lifted unless the Cubans comply with establishing a democracy and of course – the issue of credit. “Credit is where we are focusing our efforts quite closely,” said Johnson noting the differing opinions between those who want to compete with other countries that have provided letters of credit in Cuba for years, and those who want to continue with the same status quo cash-in-advance terms. “We have a lot to offer Cuba and can be competitive in many ways,” said Johnson. “Cubans also prefer U.S. goods and that demand and trust is a big positive which we should build from. But Cuba will need to finance purchases from the U.S., so this relationship and trust building starts with credit and contract negotiation. I am looking forward to playing a part in working through these details. As the U.S. trades more with Cuba and as tourists travel to Cuba in increasing numbers - the Cuban economy will improve. As the economy improves, so does their ability to pay for more goods and services. And again, trade is a two-way street. We need to help improve the Cuban economy to make it dynamic and balanced. A healthy Cuban economy is good for the U.S. - and that starts by offering credit and financing options.” Caribbean Transshipment In addition to greater U.S. tourism and availability of U.S. goods, Cuba would like to gain eight to 10% participation in the transshipment market alongside Freeport, Caucedo, Kingston and Panama is ideal, which would mean that Port Mariel would have to be a deep water, 24-hour per day operation – something that’s still about a year away. Additionally, Cuba would like to increase foreign investment in the Industrial Trade Zone – a good deal of which could be exports – something that the U.S. hasn’t yet allowed. To accommodate additional trade from the U.S., trucks are needed in-country for cargo handling and the rail system requires modernization. While the rail does now go into Mariel it only carries a small percentage of cargo. Additionally, the new four-lane highway into Mariel would need to be upgraded to allow for more traffic. As it stands, the terminal of Mariel is only at about 30% of its potential cargo capacity – signaling that growth is possible. While there is still much work to be done, Cubans and Americans alike remain curious, hopeful, uncertain and cautious. The American Soybean Association (ASA) cheered the December White House announcement saying, “Soybean growers are particularly excited about today’s announcement, specifically because of the promise that the Cuban marketplace holds for American beans, but also in the larger scope of trade’s ability to overcome even the most challenging geopolitical barriers. Trade builds bridges between nations, but it also generates real and concrete value for American farmers by expanding and strengthening our opportunities in foreign markets.” “I think we need to be cognizant of the past as well as the needs and insecurities of Cuba’s civil society,” said Johnson. “But we should not be afraid of change; the U.S. agriculture community is poised best to work through these issues. We have done this with other countries in the past and with success. Ultimately, U.S. strength and Cuban Sovereignty is a stronger combination than U.S./Cuba embargo.”