The business for international freight forwarders showed improvements in 2010 and through the first half of 2011. However, global economic uncertainty has dented recovery. What’s in store for international freight forwarding in 2011 and beyond? There are some early trends, but at this stage they are etched in sand rather than stone. By George Lauriat, Editor-in-Chief,AJOTRecent trends in International Freight Forwarding suggest a slowing in business after a recovery in 2010. Global political and economic uncertainty has dampened recovery, although it is perhaps too early to understand the full impact. What impact will Greece’s financial woes have on European trade? Will the ongoing political uncertainty in the Middle East dog trade in the region? Will China’s emphasis on domestic development under the new Five Year Plan, squeeze exports or spur imports? Whither India: will a burgeoning middle class push demand for imports or another decade of business as usual. Finally, can the US sufficiently recover within the next two years to provide an economic base for a global up tick? Zepol, a leading supplier of ocean container statistics, recently ran a comparison of inbound US 3PL controlled month-to-month teus for the 2008-2011 period (see chart). What is fairly clear from the statistics is that from a forwarder perspective the recession began in November of 2008 and bottomed out in February of 2009. However, it wasn’t until June of 2010 that the business recorded a month that exceeded the same month in 2008. Up until June, it appeared that 2011 would be the year of recovery. Since that time, the inbound box count has run slightly behind last year, a number also reflected in both US port and ocean carrier performances. It’s important to note that the earthquake and tsunami in Japan also had an influence on the slowing, although business picked up in mid-July. One curious aspect of the current trend is that defining the “Peak Season” is getting more and more difficult, as other economic factors weigh in on shipping. This year analysts are expecting shorter “Peak Season” (or conversely a longer lead up period) from late August to mid-November with falling rates as a result of the introduction of more tonnage. In a study entitled Peak Season Strategies and Trends by the Tompkins Supply Chain Consortium, the authors wrote of the new peak season: “Wounds from the 2008 and 2009 holiday season are still fresh in the minds of retailers and consumer product manufacturers. More than 4 out of 10 manufacturers plan on maintaining lower inventory levels; however the primary mechanism appears to be SKU reduction with more than 1 in 3 reporting plans to stock fewer items. This represents a conservative hedge against the deep end-of- season discounts of 2008, and the willingness to incur stock-outs in 2009.” Another factor of concern is currency as a strengthening Chinese Yuan could have a detrimental impact on East-West freight movements. In the “18th Annual Survey of Third-Party Logistics Providers”, authored by Dr. Robert Lieb, Professor of Supply Chain Management at HYPERLINK “http://www.northeastern.edu/“Northeastern University, and HYPERLINK “http://www.penskelogistics.com/company/joseph_gallick.html"Joe Gallick, Senior Vice President of Sales for Penske Logistics, reflected some of the same optimism as seen in the Zepol numbers. The survey was compiled from 36 third-party logistics company CEOs across North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific whose companies were responsible for generating approximately $58 billion in revenue in 2010. According to a release accompanying the survey: “Economic conditions appeared to slightly improve for third-party logistics companies surveyed in 2010 in North America. None of the companies were unprofitable, and none of the CEOs believed the regional third-party logistics industry operated at a loss for the year. In Europe, economic conditions continued to be challenging for third-party logistics companies with only 55% of companies surveyed meeting or exce