By Karen E. Thuermer, AJOTOne thing is for certain, despite economic downturns, people have to eat and this includes meat, pork and turkey products. According to U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA/FAS) figures, the forecast for 2010 U.S. exports of beef, veal, pork, broiler and turkey is 5,797 metric tons, down from 6,062 metric tons preliminary figures for 2009 or 4.4 percent. The largest decreases are in the broiler and turkey category, which are off 13.6 percent. USDA FAS figures for 2010 imports of beef, veal, pork, broiler and turkey forecasts an increase of 1.1 percent over 2009 figures, or 20,255 metric tons for 2010 versus 20,025 metric tons for 2009. Despite the global economic recovery, USDA/FAS expects tight exportable supplies of beef, veal, pork, broiler and turkey to continue to limit import growth. In fact, a stronger than expected economic recovery in Asia will bolster demand in key markets such as South Korea, Hong Kong and Japan, thereby benefiting U.S. exports that are revised upward. U.S. imports are forecast lower, despite tighter domestic supplies, as Asian markets will likely bid aggressively for Oceania and Uruguayan product. Russian imports are raised on stronger demand and an expected higher quota exemption. Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, will benefit from the Russian boost, as well as the continued forecast reduction in Argentine exports. USDA/FAS has raised the world trade outlook for pork slightly. Stronger demand from Asia, particularly China and Hong Kong, is expected in the second half of 2010 as economic conditions improve. Chinese imports will also be facilitated by the lifting of H1N1-related trade bans. Russian imports are revised upwards despite a lower tariff rate quota volume. High domestic prices spurred by tight supplies of animal protein are expected to encourage trade outside the quota. Greater exports from the European Union and Brazil are expected as they are poised to take advantage of strong Asian and Russian demand. Some additional EU pork shipments will likely replace live swine exports. The United States will benefit from stronger Mexican demand, although tight domestic supplies and weaker demand from Japan and South Korea are expected to constrain overall export growth. World trade in broiler meat remains fairly stable. The December announcement of an 18 percent decline in the Russian 2010 tariff rate quota (TRQ) volume resulted in a downward revision in its import forecast, which in October had been based on higher 2009 TRQ level. Import estimates for some smaller, non-traditional markets, particularly in the Middle East and Africa, are lower. Iraqi imports are revised upward despite expanding production. Higher EU exports are expected based on stronger demand in Asian and Middle Eastern markets. U.S. exports are lower based mainly on the 20 percent reduction of its Russian TRQ allocation to 600,000 tons and weaker demand from several other markets. U.S. Beef and Mexico The U.S. Meat Federation (USMEF) reports that overall beef exports for the first two months of 2010 were up a solid 9 percent in volume to 144,439 metric tons, valued at $500.5 million – a 10 percent increase. The group points out that these gains are significant given the fact that Mexico, the No. 1 destination for U.S. beef exports, continues to suffer from the economic downturn. In January and February, Mexico purchased 39,364 metric tons of U.S. beef valued at $123.9 million, a 23 percent drop in volume and a 31 percent drop in value versus the first two months of 2009. “We’re responding to a greater diversification in the beef markets,” says Philip Seng, USMEF president and CEO. “We are continuing to focus considerable resources in Mexico on programs that include meat buyer and retailer training, marketing and educational efforts for consumers, and we are confident that this market will rebound as Mexico’s economy recovers. Of course, we are simultaneously pursuing opportunities in other mark