NY/NJ’s 2007 growth was fueled by exports to Asia…but don’t expect a repeat performance.By Peter A. Buxbaum, AJOTBe careful what you wish for, because it might come true. That could very well be the mantra being repeated by ocean carriers operating in the United States-to-Asia trades out of the port of New York and New Jersey. For years, carriers complained about the glut of imports from and the lack of exports to the Far East. Carriers had to hustle to reposition empty containers back to Asia in order to accommodate imports, while taking a hit, so they said, in their revenues by doing so. Now that the confluence of a number of circumstances, including the weaker dollar, has boosted US exports, the ocean carriers are singing a different tune. Because containers must tarry at ports like New York to be filled with exports such as wastepaper, scrap metal, and agricultural products, all heavy but low-value commodities that command lower container rates, they are unable to evacuate their containers back to Asia quick enough. The result, according to Pete Zantal, general manager for analysis and industry relations at the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, is that exporters have essentially absorbed all of the available container and slot capacity during the 2007 export spike. While the port had a stellar year in 2007, thanks in large part to the growth in exports, it will be satisfied if its export levels remain even in 2008. “In 2007 we saw a surge in exports,” said Zantal. “But now exporters face the challenge of trying to get their hands on empties and getting space on ships. I don’t think we’ll see a similar surge in export growth in 2008 as we saw in 2007.” The Port of New York and New Jersey saw a 4-percent cargo growth in 2007, growth that was led by trade with Asia. Trade between the port of New York and Asia saw particularly strong growth in 2007, with export growth leading the way. Containers in the Far East trade were up over 9% in total, according to numbers supplied by the Port Authority, with growth in export containers surging at the 12% level. Trade with Southeast Asia was even more remarkable, with total containers growing at a 17-percent rate and export containers spiking by a whopping 52%. Container export growth from New York has been fueled by the weak dollar, which makes uses product process cheaper abroad, but also by a number of other factors, according to Zantal. “There has been a lack of bulk ships and an ongoing drought in Australia that has impacted their ability to grow wheat,” he said. “There has also been a general increase in the consumption of grain in places like India and China.” Growth in imports from Southeast Asia have been driven, said Zantal, by the relocation of manufacturing capacity from China, where labor costs are rising. Imports from Vietnam, the largest manufacturing base in Southeast Asia, have included furniture, shoes, and textiles. Among the 20 top categories of exports to South East Asia, 15 saw growth of at least 20% in 2007. For example, wood pulp exports increased by 33%, iron and steel by 219%, plastics by 40%, machinery by 23%, inorganic chemicals by 121%, and baking related products, by 51%. Only one category of top 20 exports to Southeast Asia fell in 2007, glass, by 10%. Growth in trade with China was also robust, with a 13% increase in 2007 in terms of tonnage over 2007, but less remarkable than trade with Southeast Asia. Among the top 20 export categories, nine recorded increases of at least 20%, while five recorded decreases. For example, plastics were up 27%; organic chemicals, 68%; glass, 26%; electrical equipment, 33%; and meat, 112%. On the downside, inorganic chemicals fell by 11%, vehicles by 29%, and hides and skins by 30%. But carriers are not going to position enough empties in the New York area to accommodate similar growth results in 2008. “Using the boxes for export is not giving the carrier the ability to turn the container around to stuff it with higher value products dest