Will the conflict in the South China Sea between China and its neighbors spill over into a wider crisis with the US?Editor’s Note:Dr. Mark J. Valencia, a senior associate at the Nautilus Institute, is an internationally known maritime policy analyst, political commentator and consultant focused on Asia. He was a Senior Fellow with the East-West Center for 26 years. Before joining the East-West Center, Dr. Valencia was a Lecturer at the Universiti Sains Malaysia and a Technical Expert with the UNDP Regional Project on Offshore Prospecting based in Bangkok.By Dr. Mark ValenciaThe political water is getting hotter in the South China Sea. Although the disputes and types of incidents are not new, they are rapidly increasing in frequency and severity. Diplomatic vitriol - even saber rattling - is rampant. Does this verbal storm presage a clash - or a calm - albeit an uneasy one? The U.S. and China have had their own rather dangerous flare ups in the South China Sea regarding what the U.S. believes is its right to freedom of navigation. Indeed, the EP-3, the Bowditch, and the Impeccable incidents have tested the nerves of commanders and defense leaders on both sides. Although the two continue to fundamentally and vehemently disagree regarding the principles involved they may have worked out a modus operandi. At least all has been relatively quiet on that front. But now new brouhahas have erupted - between China and Vietnam, and more problematic for the U.S. - between China and the Philippines. The U.S. is an ally of the Philippines via the 1951 Manila Defense Treaty. Some Philippine leaders argue that the Treaty obligates the U.S. to come to its aid if its forces are attacked anywhere “in the Pacific.” The U.S. is maintaining a strategic ambiguity regarding what it may or may not do, but its actions like the May Manila port visit of the US aircraft carrier Carl Vinson speak volumes to analysts and relevant militaries. Moreover, the U.S. and the Philippines are engaging in pre-arranged maritime security exercises in the South China Sea. China has disrupted ongoing exploration for petroleum by concessionaires of Vietnam and the Philippines in disputed waters - either by cutting seismometer cables or threatening the vessel and crew. And in a twist, China is alleging that Vietnam and the Philippines are violating the agreed ASEAN -China Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea and have “invaded” Chinese territory and sea space. Incidents of intrusion into disputed waters on both sides are increasing in frequency and intensity and show every indication of escalating. Each party accuses the other of acting ever more assertively and violating the DOC’s call for peace and stability. The Western oil companies doing the exploration plan to continue, and China has warned Vietnam in particular that it will “take whatever measures are necessary” to protect its interests in the South China Sea. Its Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tanikai has now also urged the U.S. to restrain such countries from provoking China lest Washington itself become embroiled in an unwanted conflict. Apparently in response, US Secretary of State Clinton restated the US position that the recent events were undermining stability and that the U.S. was opposed to any threat or use of force to advance territorial claims. It is no secret that the U.S. and China are at strategic odds in the South China Sea. One is striving to maintain -and if necessary- demonstrate its dominance while the other is bent on expanding its might and reach. The recently released US National Military Strategy states that “To safeguard U.S. and partner nation interests, the U.S. will be prepared to demonstrate the will and commit the resources needed to oppose any nation’s actions that jeopardize access to and use of the global commons and cyberspace, or that threaten the security of our allies.” This is clearly aimed at China and its actions in the South China Sea. But if China perceives that it is being strat