US is the leading exporter and a major importerBy Peter A. Buxbaum, AJOTWorldwide trade in fresh fruits and vegetables has been a growth industry for a quite a number of years and is likely to remain so. Even a major economic downturn is not likely to dampen this market. There are two overarching factors driving the increase in the consumption, and therefore, the trade in fresh fruits and vegetables worldwide, according to Marco Palma, an assistant professor of agricultural economics at Texas A&M University in College Station, Texas. These are growth in populations and real incomes and the trend toward trade liberalization. Statistics compiled by Palma tell the story: US imports of fresh fruits and vegetables are up 90% since 2000; exports have increased by 49% in the same period. The US is now the largest exporter of fresh fruits and vegetables in the world, followed closely by Mexico. Two-way trade with the NAFTA countries remains robust, with exports to Canada and Mexico both nearly doubling since 2000 and imports from both countries growing in the 60% range in the same period. Palma expects total US fresh fruit and vegetable exports to increase by 23% by 2015. US exports to China have more than quadrupled between 2002 and 2008 while imports from that country have grown at a slightly slower rate. Other top markets for US fruits and vegetables include Japan and the European Union, while Brazil and the EU round out the US’s top five agricultural suppliers. The weakened US dollar has, of course, helped US exports, but that tells only part of the story, according to Palma. “The weaker dollar make exports more inexpensive to other countries and increases incentives to by from the United States,” he said. “More importantly, increased population and increased real income have increased demand for produce.” The same applies to increased demand for fruits and vegetables in the United States, he added. The US population is growing at 2.7 million persons per year and the number of middle class households is expected to rise from 118 million today to 134 million in 2020. Since 1980, per capita consumption of fruits and vegetables has grown by 12% to 579 kg, attributable primarily to increased vegetable consumption, according to Palma’s research. Growing income also yields greater demand for year round availability of desired produce. “Demand used to be seasonable,” Palma said. “Now we see increasing year round demand for products. This is increasing the import side of things in the United States.” The same trends are seen in emerging markets such as India and China, said Palma, the two countries with projected middle class household growth greater than the United States. Another growth factor in US consumption is the increasingly popularity of so-called non-traditional products originally associated with ethnic cuisines. “The population of minority groups is becoming bigger and are increasingly demanding some of their specialty products,” said Palma. “The general population has also picked up on some of these fruits and vegetables” which include, according to Palma, items such as okra, mango, and papaya, among many others. The current economic difficulties in the United States will not necessarily have a negative impact on the trade in fresh fruits and vegetables, according to Palma. “When people face an economic crisis, they tend to cut discretionary spending,” he commented. “Basic food items do not fall into that category.” In fact supermarket sales of produce could increase during bad economic times. “People might eat out less and spend more time and money in the supermarket, buying more products from the produce section,” Palma said. A more liberalized trade environment has also driven the increase in trade in fresh fruits and vegetables, according to Palma. He points to the dramatic increase in produce trade within NAFTA as an example of that phenomenon, although he attributes the growth in the trade with Mexico to the Mexico’s 1986 pre-NAFTA joinin