ASEAN’s growth is a pleasant asterisk to the global recession and the aftermath’s tepid economic performance. The region has tremendous potential. With a population of 620 million and a GDP of $2.2 trillion, it is a region that appears poised for a growth spurt. But there is the question of whether Eurozone problems, China’s transition, weak Indian economy, flat Japanese economy and a US dogged by sovereign debt can derail ASEAN’s promising future? By George Lauriat, AJOT*It is no secret the world’s largest economic powers aren’t doing so well: The US policy makers seem ready to base-jump off the fiscal cliff; China’s growth rate has slowed with weakness from its trade partners, and there is uncertainty with the new government; Growth in neighboring Asian giants India and Japan remains stagnant; And there is the seemingly never-ending Euro Zone crisis which has dampened the economies region wide and stifled demand from China’s favorite export partners. Amid the gloomy returns there is a large, somewhat unexpected asterisk: Southeast Asia or more specifically, the ASEAN states [See Member State Chart]. Throughout an era filled with multiple global crises Southeast Asian nations like Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Vietnam, and too a lesser extent, Thailand have continued to grow economically buoying the entire region’s prospects. With a population of 620 million, a GDP of $2.2 trillion, and a GDP growth rate expected to by 5.5% 2013-2017 (OECD estimates) which is commensurate with the pre-recession growth rates. Now the region holds some real bargaining chips, and the world’s major economic powers want the ASEAN region to pull up a chair to the table. Specifically, there are dueling pact proposals with each of the proponents of each trying to include the ASEAN states in their respective trading blocs. There is the US led TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) and on the other side of the table, the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) favored by China. The sixteen-member RCEP includes the ten ASEAN nations plus China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand, and negotiations are scheduled to start next year with the aim of completing the process by 2015. The US led nine nation, TPP, includes four members of ASEAN, [Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam] plus Chile, Peru, New Zealand and the US. The avowed goal is to create a pan-Pacific trade group that links the Americas with Asia, particularly in Southeast Asia. For the US, ASEAN is a starting point for a more ambitious Asian policy. In August, the US Ambassador to ASEAN, David Carden wrote in an op ed piece published in a Singapore newspaper which outlined the administration’s vision for ASEAN’s role in US Asian policy: “Under the Obama Administration, the United States has made a commitment to work with and support ASEAN as the central player in the Asia Pacific region’s emerging diplomatic architecture. ASEAN-centric multilateralism is compatible with and supportive of other elements of our rebalancing to Asia.” Clearly the “re-balancing” Ambassador Carden is referring to is really a counter balancing of China’s growing influence in the region. This US policy objective has set up the dueling pacts between the RCEP and TPP. The manifestation of this policy shift was President Obama’s recent trip to Southeast Asia. In November the President visited Southeast Asia (Thailand, Myanmar and Cambodia) kicking off the launch of the US-ASEAN Expanded Economic Engagement plan or the so-called E3 initiative. In his Bangkok (November 18th) address, President Obama said that the region is fast growing and a key to American security and jobs, “And that’s why I’ve made restoring American engagement in this region [Asia] a top priority as president.” The US is negotiating with ten countries on both sides of the Pacific for inclusion in the TPP. The problem the Obama administration faces is the membership terms of the TPP, especially in regards to state-supported industry are a har