It depends on how you read the numbersBy Peter A. Buxbaum, AJOTIs it possible that the United States is, or recently was, a net exporter of steel? If that were the case, it would have been the first time in over 50 years that the US achieved that status. In fact, the American Institute for International Steel (AIIS), an industry group that advocates liberal trade policies, came to that conclusion after analyzing the August 2009 steel import and export numbers. But it turns out that the AIIS number crunching is subject to dispute, and that the low level of imports in August, which allowed the purported steel trade surplus to come about, may not recur any time soon. What is beyond dispute is that global demand for steel is way down this year as compared to last and is reflected in year-on-year comparisons of monthly export and import numbers. US steel output has fallen 45% over the last year, and the domestic industry is operating at 60% of capacity, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute, a group that advocates for the domestic industry. The American Institute for International Steel claimed that US government steel export and import data for August revealed that, for the first time in over 50 years, the US was a net exporter of steel. “This dramatic development shows the increasing importance of US exports of steel to international markets which are returning to stronger levels of demand,” said David Phelps, AIIS’s president, “as well as the high value placed on the quality of the American made steel and the efficient service provided by steel trading companies.” Phelps pointed to data that showed that total exports in August were 800,000 tons while total imports were 975,000 tons. The AIIS claim of an export surplus may seem peculiar in light of those numbers. But Phelps explained that the group subtracted out imports of 156,000 tons of semi-finished steel and 30,000 tons of hot-rolled steel because those imports are used by domestic steel manufacturers to make domestic steel products. “Other re-rolling operations are also importing,” said Phelps, “but those data are more difficult to segregate and could be as high as another 30,000 tons based on estimates.” Total Steel exports in August 2009 were 800, 000 tons compared to 707,000 tons in July 2009, a 13.1% increase, but a 40% decrease compared to August 2008. According to year-to-date figures, exports decreased 40.5 % compared to 2008, from 9.1 million tons in 2008 to 5.5 million tons in 2009. “The improvement in exports in August is a positive sign that some international markets are improving, especially in the developing world,” said David Phelps, president, AIIS. This position is bolstered by price increases steel makers have seen in recent months. The average US price of hot-rolled steel sheet reached $535 a ton in September, up from $380 in June. “The data for August and the year-to-date period show that some developing countries, such as in Africa, the Dominican Republic, India, Brazil, and Russia are beginning to show strong signs of life,” said Phelps. Phelps’s assertions were disputed by Thomas Gibson, the president of the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). He said that AIIS’s analysis was “puzzling” and “somewhat selective in terms of looking at the big picture.” AISI’s analysis concluded that August showed a trade deficit of 175,000 net tons of steel. “Globally, demand has been so low,” Gibson said, adding that China’s economic stimulus plans have “started to generate more activity in Asia.” The August steel export surplus, if that is what it was, was helped by imports, which declined by 13.8% in August compared to July. Total steel imports in August 2009 were 854,000 tons compared to 991,000 tons in July 2009, a 13.8% decrease, and a 66.5% decrease compared to August 2008. Year-to-date figures show that imports decreased 51% compared to 2008, from 21.4 million tons in 2008 to 10.5 million tons in 2009. “Import arrivals declined in August due to weak market