- A Northern Irish court will today consider whether to allow a demand to give Parliament a say on Brexit to go directly to the U.K. Supreme Court
- May tells BBC that general election “should be” in 2020 as planned
- Chatham House says Brexit threatens U.K.’s economic model based on foreign capital and labor
- Adecco saw first signs of Brexit uncertainty in third quarter, CEO says
- Berlin said to attract start-ups from London, says FT
- Pro-Brexit lawmaker Gove says High Court judgement “”
Brexit Bulletin: “Brexit Plus, Plus, Plus”
By: Simon Kennedy | Nov 08 2016 at 02:31 AM | International Trade
Republican candidate Donald Trump predicted voters will deliver “Brexit plus, plus, plus” by handing him the presidency. Whether he’s right could end up having a ripple effect across the Atlantic before and after the U.K. leaves the European Union.
President Barack Obama was caustic about Brexit, warning that Britain would be at the “back of the queue” for a trade deal with the U.S. if it left the bloc.
On the campaign trail, Trump called himself “Mr. Brexit” and said he too would ride a populist wave to victory against the odds. He said the U.K. “would certainly not be at the back of the queue” and declared Britons were right to seize back control.
By contrast, Democrat Hillary Clinton’s campaign warned against Brexit, with adviser Jake Sullivan telling the Observer in April that she “believes that transatlantic cooperation is essential, and that cooperation is strongest when Europe is united.”
Following the referendum she said she respected the decision and that the main task would be to ensure any economic uncertainty didn’t hurt the U.S., and to then make clear “America’s steadfast commitment to the special relationship.”
In a podcast released yesterday, researchers at the Centre for European Reform said Clinton would likely follow Obama in favoring regional deals rather than a bilateral pact with the U.K. They said U.S. politicians are worried Brexit will distract the U.K. and EU from other matters such as fighting terrorism and make it harder for U.S. busineses and investors to access the region.
In an accompanying report, Ian Bond and Agata Gostynska-Jakubowska said the U.S. is unlikely to take sides despite British hopes that whoever is in the White House will lobby the EU to grant concessions.
“As Britain gears up for Brexit it should not expect too much from the U.S. America will watch the Brexit talks like someone watching their best friends go through a divorce. It will sympathise, console, and offer support where it can. But fundamentally, it is a bystander and will avoid taking sides, in the hope it can still hang out with both.”
No Turning Back
Prime Minister Theresa May continues her tour of India today as she and Brexit Secretary David Davis contend there’s no going back on Brexit despite last week’s High Court ruling that Parliament rather than the premier must trigger the negotiations.
The government is appealing the decision to the Supreme Court.
“We won’t achieve a good negotiation outcome if this is a negotiation being run by 650 people in this House of Commons, or nearly 900” in the House of Lords, Davis said. “If Parliament insists on setting out a detailed minimum negotiating position, that will quickly become the maximum possible offer from our negotiating partners.”
Labour Party’s Brexit spokesman Keir Starmer urged him to “abandon the furtive executive approach adopted so far” and give more information on the plan. He has said Labour won’t block Brexit.
Business Secretary Greg Clark committed the government to preserving EU worker protections against discrimination and dangerous workplaces as well as the rights to paid vacations and support for parents guaranteed under regional law.
The Financial Times reported May could begin outlining details of her plan for financial services before Christmas.
Budget Hole
Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond is facing a £25 billion hole in the public finances following the Brexit vote, the Institute for Fiscal Studies warned.
Diminished economic growth will result in £31 billion pounds of lost tax revenue, only partially offset by a £6 billion reduction in spending if Britain ceases to contribute to the EU budget, the non-partisan research group said. It means Britain is heading for a deficit of £14.9 billion in 2019-20 instead of the £10.4 billion surplus predicted in March.
The report was released as Hammond prepares to announce his new fiscal program on Nov. 23 and will likely reinforce his view that he cannot afford a “splurge for the economy.” Meantime, he plans to miss the regular meeting of EU finance ministers for a second straight month.
Ireland Inc.
Irish executives are lashing out at the U.K. over its Brexit preparations after Enterprise Minister Mary Mitchell O’Connor said negotiators have no clear road map.
“The U.K. government clearly has no idea what it is doing,” Ryanair Chief Executive Officer Michael O’Leary told Bloomberg Television. Allied Irish Banks Chairman Richard Pym said last week that “business is crying out for clarity.”
Ireland has more at stake than any other country in Europe, because of close trade ties with the U.K. Depending on the terms of departure, Brexit could cost Ireland as much as 3.8 percent of economic output, according to the government.
Brexit Bullets
