Theresa May is now fighting on two fronts. On Monday, the prime minister won the authority to formally engage with the European Union over Brexit, only for her day to be spoiled by Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon pledging to call a referendum on independence.  She Has the Power Two months after the Supreme Court forced her to obtain the permission of Parliament to trigger withdrawal from the European Union, May secured that with ease.  She also has a free hand in the negotiations after MPs overturned amendments from the House of Lords that would have forced her to guarantee the rights of EU citizens residing in Britain and put whatever she negotiates to a parliamentary vote. A potential rebellion within her own Conservative Party evaporated. It’s May’s Brexit now. “We are now on the threshold of the most important negotiation for our country in a generation,” said Brexit Secretary David Davis.  The question now is simple: When will May wield her newly-legal power to file Article 50? She is due to deliver a statement at 12:30 p.m. on Tuesday, an opportunity some viewed late last week as a potential launchpad. But now officials say May will wait for the final week of March, as Bloomberg indicated was likely last week. That will let her avoid colliding with this week’s Dutch elections and a party in Rome on March 25 to mark the 60th anniversary of the EU’s founding treaty. With March 26 a Sunday and the British Parliament on recess March 31, the likeliest days for the notification are March 26 to March 30. One risk for May is that officially beginning the exit cedes power to the EU. Britain is under greater time pressure than the bloc because it will face a two year countdown, at the end of which it exits regardless of the deal it can strike. That offers considerable leverage to the other side.  The Times reported on Tuesday that the government has been warned it will have to pass at least seven bills through Parliament as part of the Brexit process, exposing it to ambush by pro-EU lawmakers. Legislation covering immigration, tax, agriculture, trade and customs, fisheries, data protection and sanctions will be needed to prepare for the future, the newspaper said, citing a leaked document presented to government.  North of the Border Meanwhile, Sturgeon declared that May’s planning for Brexit gave her reason to start the legal process for a new independence referendum to be held by the spring of 2019. Disquiet in Scotland, 62 percent of whose voters backed remaining in the EU, now risks complicating May’s preparations for divorcing the EU. While she suggested she wouldn’t authorize a vote, the Eurasia Group said it’s likely she will seek to delay, rather than block, any Scottish plebiscite until the split with the EU is completed. “There might be a tactical advantage for pro-union forces if Scotland only votes after Brexit,” said Mujtaba Rahman of Eurasia. “Some Scots might accept the U.K.’s new status, while EU leaders have made clear an independent Scotland would not be guaranteed immediate accession.” A survey in the Herald newspaper on Monday put support for remaining in the U.K. at 52 percent versus 48 percent for independence. The concern for May will be the “harder” the Brexit she seeks, the greater the calls in Scotland will be for secession. Nick Macpherson, a former Treasury official, last week tweeted that the government’s “uncompromising approach to tearing up partial membership of the EU” was “putting at risk the 300-year Union which made Britain Great.” Trading Shock Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists crunched 854,000 data points to warn how important trading with a neighbor is. In a report distributed on Monday, Ruben Segura-Cayuela and Robert Wood said doubling the distance between countries cuts trade by about two-thirds. “Because size and distance matter most for trade, the EU will remain important for U.K. trade even after Brexit, and lost trade with the EU will be hard to compensate,” they said. They estimated that in a worst-case scenario, Brexit could lower British exports to the EU by 25 percent in the long-term. Such a potential shock probably explains why the House of Lords EU External Affairs Sub-Committee reported on Tuesday that May should ease Britain into any post-Brexit trading relationship. “Agreeing a free-trade agreement within two years is inherently ambitious, so the government must try to agree a transitional arrangement,” panel chairwoman Sandip Verma said in a statement. On the Markets The pound showed a rare resilience to political risk on Monday, with Sturgeon’s long timetable for the vote giving some succour for traders.  Still, the news from Parliament last night added more pressure, leading to a more familiar pattern on Tuesday. By 7:30 a.m. in London on Tuesday sterling had fallen against all its major peers, reaching the lowest since January versus the dollar. There could be more losses ahead, with the risk that, as my colleagues David Goodman, Sofia Horta e Costa and Cecile Vannucci show, another Scottish referendum may reopen pressure points in financial markets. Separately, ratings company Fitch warned on Monday that any setback for May in the talks could provoke “heightened financial market volatility” over the next two years. And Finally… U.K. cosmetics retailer Lush is exploring further growth options outside the U.K. after complaining the vote for Brexit sent “shockwaves” through its business. The closely-held company bemoaned a lack of clarity from the government and worried about higher import duties and an inability to hire skilled workers. About 20 percent of Lush’s workers do not have British citizenship and were made to feel “unwelcome and understandably upset” by Brexit, the company said. More than 80 of its staff have taken up offers of jobs in Germany, it added.