By Julian Keeling, Consolidators International, Inc The end of a decade invariably brings pundits and other assorted experts out of the woodwork to pontificate on the changes which occurred during the previous ten year period.''The $100 billion air freight industry is no exception. A wide variety of industry and academic pundits as well as any number of "consultants" are offering their expert opinions on just how air cargo has changed during the first ten years of the 21st century and what to expect in the future. Let me add some thoughts to the process; opinions direct from the air freight trenches. As one who deals with direct shippers of every'size'and type, with hundreds of both large and small forwarders and all of the major international airlines on a daily basis, perhaps my views can shed some light on a number of important issues that were prominent during the past ten years and which are expected to shape the business of air freight in the future. Perhaps the single most'significant trend'is the change in the perspective and psychology of our industry. Today, there is a growing sense of what air freight can and cannot do. This air of reality has become particularly strong during the latter part of the decade as our industry came face to face with a downturn in business never experienced since air freight began as a business 60 years ago. It is hard to recall in these troubled years the previous air of certainty about air freight's growth as inevitable in good times and bad. That air cargo dovetailed so perfectly with the needs of global industry.' That it was not circumscribed by limitations of the more traditioonal methods of transport like'ships and trucks. Who could blame the optimism so prevalent by everyone on the firelines of our industry; the airlines, forwarders and 3PLs?' Hadn't our industry, reflecting the technological advances of the 20th century shown uninterrupted growth even in post war recessions? Air freight was the handmaiden to new manufacturing and distribution systems so eagerly embraced by global industry. Epitomizing the revolution on the assembly line was the Just-In-Time or J-I-T method of production.' Originated by the Japanese auto industry in the 1980s, the J-I-T system brought parts and supplies to the assembly line or distribution center almost at the last minute to increase production efficiency and save on inventory costs.' This new system became the method of choice for much of world production.' Air freight, because of the minimal time needed between loading dock and consignee, became the vital cog in much of the utilization of J-I-T. With the world hurtling toward a severe recession, however, doubts began to creep in about the efficacy of J-I-T.' With demand languishing for the products of an assembly line or retail store, a lessening need for J-I-T occurred.' Also, J-I-T operates best in a perfect world of logistics where flight schedules are rigorously maintained and customs procedures run smoothly. Unfortunately, our world is not perfect with man-made calamities like terrorism attacks, increased security regulations and customs jam-ups which slow the flow of traffic, and labor unrest.' Natural disasters contribute their share of problems with earthquakes, tsunamis, and swine flu epidemics becoming more common.' Manufacturers were finding they were winning millions in inventory costs while losing hundreds of millions in lost sales and good will. Today, a more realistic assessment of J-I-T exists. It remains an important part of global production but certainly not as pervasive as it once was. With the lessened importance of J-I-T combined with a brutal recession, air cargo growth came to an abrupt end--and even reversed itself into negative territory. "Automatic" growth, like the emperor's new clothes, became an illusion. Another important trend was the realization by many shippers that WHEN a shipment arrived was just as important as the speed in which it was delivered. Manufacturers could arrange production schedules with g