"It will be a difficult year, but we forecast something like 3 percent growth for the air freight industry," Andreas Otto, Lufthansa Cargo sales chief, said at an event in Frankfurt.
"We might see zero growth in the first quarter or first half, but the second half should be better. We don't see a recession," he said.
Otto said that Lufthansa Cargo was prepared to take out capacity where needed at short notice should the downturn be sharper than expected.
"We cut capacity by between 20-25 percent from mid-December to mid-January because of the holiday season and we could take that up to 30 percent," he said, but added the group was not yet talking about long-term grounding of planes by parking them in the desert, as it had done during the 2009 downturn.
After a good start to 2011, the euro zone debt crisis, the earthquake in Japan and slowing growth in China have all hit the cargo industry.
"We're not where we thought we would be after the first few months, but we're happy," Otto said. "We're around 5 percent behind in recent weeks, but the peak season in Germany has been good and is making up for China."
He added the group had shifted some of its flights to Europe and North America to avoid the intense competition in China.
When asked about its struggling Jade Cargo joint venture with Shenzen Airlines, Otto said all options were open for the unit, but that Lufthansa hoped to reach a conclusion with the other shareholders on its capitalization by the end of the year.
After a court in Hesse banned all night flights at Frankfurt Airport, Lufthansa Cargo reworked its schedule, shifting some flights to the daytime, canceling others and also moving some goods by road to Cologne, where there are no flight restrictions.
"The operation works more or less," Otto said, but confirmed it was hurting profits.
"We've got 15 million euros ($20.2 million) of profit impact for this year but it's difficult to foresee for 2012," he said, adding that the ban was hurting the transport of goods such as flowers from Africa, which have to arrive early in the European morning.
"Our customers have been supportive but they have a responsibility in terms of profit and loss and there are alternatives."
A higher court in Leipzig is expected to make a final decision on night flights at Frankfurt in March. (Reuters)
