Oil jumped on a report that Saudi Arabia is considering deeper export curbs before easing amid skepticism over whether the producer will follow through. Futures pared gains in New York after rising as much as 2 percent. U.K.-based consultant Petroleum Policy Intelligence said the kingdom is considering cutting exports by as much as 1 million barrels a day to offset the rise in Libyan and Nigerian production. OPEC member Kuwait last week said the two producers may be asked to cap their oil output amid concern about their rebounding production. “The market is waiting for the proof in the pudding,” Michael Loewen, a strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto, said by phone. “There’s a lot of chatter these days. If Saudi Arabia is actually going to reduce exports” investors will need to see it in tanker-tracking data before they believe it, he said. West Texas Intermediate for August delivery rose 25 cents to $46.27 a barrel at 12:14 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Total volume traded was about 4 percent above the 100-day average. Brent for September settlement advanced 32 cents to $48.74 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The global benchmark crude traded at a premium of $2.26 to WTI. Oil has hovered below $50 a barrel amid concerns that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies won’t be able shrink a longstanding glut, as producers such as the U.S. and Libya ramp up output. Citigroup Inc. cut its oil-price forecasts for this year and next as Libya and Nigeria restore previously halted supplies and U.S. production climbs. “Saudi Arabia may try to lay the groundwork for a possible shock-and-awe at some point,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “They don’t even have to comply with it, they just have to say they’re doing it.” Libya will participate in a technical meeting with fellow OPEC members as well as Russia in St. Petersburg on July 22 to share the “factors enabling and constraining Libya’s production recovery,” Mustafa Sanalla, chairman of the National Oil Corp., said on Tuesday. Supplies from Libya have increased to 1.1 million barrels a day, according to a person familiar with the matter. U.S. crude inventories probably decreased 3.5 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg survey before an Energy Information Administration report Wednesday. Crude stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI and the biggest U.S. oil-storage hub, probably fell by 1.5 million barrels last week, according to a forecast compiled by Bloomberg. The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute will release its inventory data later on Tuesday. Oil-market news:
  • OPEC member Ecuador said it will start to lift crude output to increase revenue, a blow to the group’s unity, barely two months after it extended a deal to curb its oil output until the end of March.
  • OPEC’s board of governors has selected Saudi candidate Ayed al-Qahtani to become its new head of research, say two people familiar with the matter, who ask not to be identified because the information isn’t public.