Routs in global bonds and emerging markets intensified, while the dollar climbed with European stocks and base metals as investors positioned for the wave of fiscal stimulus that Donald Trump has pledged to unleash.
The yield on 30-year Treasuries rose above 3 percent for the first time since January, with last week’s record debt selloff bleeding into Monday trading and weighing on credit markets. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced to the highest since February as the U.S. currency strengthened versus almost all its major counterparts. While European shares rose to a two-week high and U.S. equity index futures gained, stocks in developing nations sank to a four-month low. Copper headed for the highest close in 16-months and gold fell.
Trump’s election as U.S. President is sending shock waves through global markets on speculation his pledge to boost infrastructure spending will boost growth and inflation and trigger faster hikes in U.S. interest-rate. About $1.2 trillion was wiped off the value of bonds worldwide last week as equities added about $1 trillion and base metals soared by the most in four years. Emerging markets are being hit by an exodus of capital amid concern Trump will also implement more protectionist trade policies.
“Trump has introduced so much uncertainty—around the fiscal outlook, the outlook for foreign demand for Treasuries given his protectionism and his views on China, uncertainty around the outlook for the Fed,” said John Davies, an interest-rate strategist at Standard Chartered Plc in London, which adjusted its forecast for 10-year Treasuries yields to 3 percent in the end of 2017 from below 2 percent previously. “There’s an uncertainty premium, rather than just expectations of much more Fed tightening,” being priced into Treasuries, he said. “We think there’s room for this to continue.”
Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields increased 12 basis points to 2.27 percent as of 10:57 a.m. London time, the highest since early January. They surged 37 basis points last week, the most in three years, amid speculation Trump’s plans to boost spending and cut taxes will widen the budget deficit and stoke inflation. The 30-year yield increased 10 basis points to 3.04 percent.
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said Friday that the central bank was close to achieving its goals of maximum employment and price stability, strengthening the case for an interest-rate increase. Pacific Investment Management Co. says long-term yields may have bottomed out and predicts three rate hikes by the end of next year. Futures prices indicate an 84 percent chance of a tightening at the December policy meeting.
“Yields will continue to rise over the next year,” said Hiroki Shimazu, an economist and strategist at the Japanese unit of MCP Asset Management in Tokyo. “The fundamentals are very strong, particularly in the U.S. There are some signs of higher inflation pressures. Trump is pushing this phenomenon.”
Benchmark German 10-year bonds headed for their longest losing streak since May, and those on similar-maturity Italian debt climbed to the highest since July 2015. U.K. 10-year gilts extended their slide to a sixth day, pushing yields to a five-month high. Portuguese yields rose above 3.6 percent for the first time since October.
Since the Nov. 8 election, developing-nation local-currency bonds tumbled 7.3 percent through Nov. 11, the biggest three-day slump since October 2008. The decline cut the bonds’ return this year to 8.5 percent.
Government bonds also extended losses across the Asia-Pacific region. Thailand’s 10-year yield jumped by the most since May after foreign investors pulled a record 27 billion baht ($763 million) from the nation’s bond market on Friday, while similar-maturity debt in China dropped for a seventh day, the longest losing streak in three years.
The cost of insuring corporate debt against default climbed to the highest since July 7. The Markit iTraxx Europe Index of credit-default swaps on investment-grade companies rose two basis points to 80 basis points. A gauge of swaps on junk-rated businesses fell one basis points to 349 basis points.
Yields on investment-grade corporate bonds in euros rose to 0.91 percent on Friday, the highest since June 30, according to Bloomberg Barclays index data.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped 0.7 percent, rising for a fourth-straight day, and set for the largest gain over such a period since 2009.
The euro fell versus the greenback for a sixth day, its longest run of declines in six months, dropping 0.9 percent to $1.0760, a level last seen in January. The yen sank 1.2 percent and touched its weakest level since early June. Japan’s economy expanded by an annualized 2.2 percent in the last quarter, data showed Monday, exceeding the 0.8 percent expansion forecast in a Bloomberg survey and easing pressure on the Bank of Japan to add stimulus.
“The dollar is strengthening along with the rise in U.S. yields, reflecting expectations for economic expansion from fiscal spending,” said Yunosuke Ikeda, Nomura Holdings Inc.’s head of Japan foreign-exchange research in Tokyo. “Japan’s 2 percent growth can be used as a reason for the BOJ not lowering interest rates for a while.”
The pound fell 0.7 percent to $1.2514, wiping out a 0.6 percent gain last week. The Swiss franc advanced to the strongest level since June 24 against the euro.
New Zealand’s dollar dropped to a one-month low after an earthquake rocked the country early Monday. South Korea’s won dropped to its weakest level since June amid growing calls for President Park Geun-hye to be impeached over an influence-peddling scandal, while China’s yuan slid to a six-year low.
Mexico’s peso fluctuated after a Trump adviser hinted in a Financial Times opinion piece that the president-elect is open to negotiations before imposing import barriers. It tumbled 12 percent in the three days following the election of Trump, who had campaigned on promises to tear up the North American Free Trade Agreement, crack down on illegal immigration, and build a wall along the southern U.S. border.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index slid 0.2 percent, extending last week’s 2.27 percent drop, the deepest five-day loss since June 2013. The lira and Hungarian forint tumbled more than 0.9 percent.
Copper rallied as much as 3.4 percent in London. It surged 11 percent last week as Trump pledged to spend more than $500 billion rebuilding U.S. infrastructure and Chinese investors stepped up purchases. All base metals except tin advanced on the London Metal Exchange.
Iron ore climbed to a two-year high on the Dalian Commodity Exchange as data showed rising steel output in China, the world’s largest steelmaker. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the initial reaction of iron ore and copper prices to the infrastructure spending proposed by Trump has been excessive and analysts reiterated their view for sequentially lower prices.
Gold touched a five-month low, after sliding last week by the most in three years as the prospect of Fed rate increases strengthened the dollar.
Oil slipped 0.4 percent as Iran boosted output and as U.S. explorers raised the number of active rigs to the most since February, signaling the persistence of a global supply glut.
S&P 500 Index futures rose 0.3 percent, pointing to further gains after the underlying benchmark had its biggest weekly jump in two years.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.9 percent, after rallying last week by the most since July. The Index was supported by advances in miners and banks, seen as beneficiaries of Trump’s policies, with merger-and-acquisition activity also providing a fillip.
Among the deals being discussed:
- Siemens AG climbed 1.7 percent after agreeing to buy Mentor Graphics Corp. for $4.5 billion to expand its industrial software capabilities.
- Intrum Justitia AB jumped 12 percent after Europe’s biggest debt collector said it is acquiring competitor Lindorff in a $1.96 billion deal.
- Harman International Industries Inc. agreed to be acquired by Samsung Electronics Co.
- Novartis AG was little changed after people familiar with the matter said the Swiss health-care company is in talks to acquire U.S. generic-drugs maker Amneal Pharmaceuticals LLC.
Stocks in the developed world outperformed bonds last week by the most since 2011, based on the MSCI World Index of equities in developed nations and the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.9 percent, headed for its lowest close since July 8.
Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov submitted his resignation and the government withdrew it’s 2017 budget draft after former Air Force Chief Rumen Radev defeated the ruling party’s candidate in a presidential election. The yield on Bulgaria’s euro-denominated bonds maturing in September 2024 rose nine basis points to 2.02 percent, the highest since July 14.
Radev is a political novice who campaigned on fighting corruption, strengthening the borders against immigrants, upgrading the military and lifting sanctions against Russia.