Here’s one key takeaway from Japan’s June trade data:
While export values dropped again, volumes rose, for the eighth consecutive month in which these have been stronger than values.
- Since reaching an eight-year low against the dollar in 2015, the yen has strengthened 15 percent, causing a 14 percent fall in export prices in June and prompting some companies to cut profit forecasts.
- Volumes to China, the U.S. and the EU all rose.
- Volumes are less sensitive to currency movements than values, according to Marcel Thieliant, Japan economist at Capital Economics in Singapore, as firms adjust prices in response to foreign exchange moves.
- Thieliant expects volumes to decline slightly this year and next, as external demand is weak.