b'MAY 10 - 23, 2021BREAKBULK QUARTERLY 19(CYCLEcontinued from page 17) Butthecontinuedsuccessof(COSTLYcontinued from page 18) kets earlier this year, prices have surged (notablyresistingcuttingironorethe dry bulk sector is predicated onBrazil is also picking up some, saidsince the survey was carried out. That shipments). severalprimaryfactors: AhotChi- Juan Luciano, chief executive officerwill likely spur more plantings.Since the beginning of the year, aneseeconomy;acontinuedrecov- of Archer-Daniels-MidlandCo.,oneSuppliesmaybebiggerthan tit-for-tat exchange of tariffs and tradeery(withoutCOVID-19relapse)inoftheworldsbiggestagriculturalexpected if farmers held back on pro-obstructionismhasexacerbatedtheconsumingmarketsliketheU.S.,commoditiestraders. Americancornvidingtheirfullplantingintentions tension between two trade partners. Europe, and Japan; and a conserva- arriving in China will soon be moretopreventpricesfromfalling. Also, As a result, China began buyingtive dry bulk orderbook. expensive than wheat, he said in angrowersrenewingagreementswith morerawmaterialsfromalterna- Fornow,therearereasonsforearnings call this week. the agency to keep land aside for envi-tive sources like Brazil, the U.S. andbeingcautiouslyoptimisticoftheHigh prices are starting to cut intoronmental purposes are now bringing Canada. recoveryoftheglobaleconomy,margins for poultry and pig producers inthese areas back into production due to Forexample,theU.S.exportedbut India shows just how fragile theBrazil, but prices arent yet high enoughhigher prices, agri-tech startup Farm-around663,000tonnesofcoaltorecoverycanbeandLatin Americato curb demand, said Paulo Sousa, chiefers Business Network said in March.China in March, more than doublingand Africa still lag far behind. As forexecutive officer of Cargill Inc. in Brazil.Weseethepossibilityofnew the estimated 300,000 tonnes in Feb- ships,theorderbookforbulkersisAny feed switching in the South Ameri- acres to be found as farmers respond ruary. This total is a continuation ofsmall, as owners have been hesitant tocan nation will be limited as Brazil isto price gains, said Fabio Sandri, chief atrendstartedinthefourthquarterrisk long term investments in poweralready a wheat importer. executiveofficerofsecond-biggest of 2020, when coal exports to Chinaplants that could be environmentallyCorn and soybean meal are theU.S. chicken producer Pilgrims Pride soared to 1 million tonnes, over 250%obsolete at a stroke of a pen. But thebigcomponentsofanimalfeed,soCorp. Higher feed prices compressed increase on a quarter-to-quarter basis.supplysideoftheequationcouldthere arent a lot of options, he said. the companys profit margins even as The U.S. has coking coal of similareasily changewe are already seeingIn the U.S., some feed makers indemand for chicken was rising.quality to Australia and is a suitableanuptickincontainershipordersthe southern Plains bought up wheatFor now, the world is still facing replacementalthough even with theshould shipowners feel the time is ripein March and April, when prices werea shortage of feed grains, while wheat export increase the U.S. coal exportsfor investment. close to that of corn, said Joe Nuss- suppliesareexpectedtobemore are far short of the 3 million tonnesSupercycleornotitisdiffi- meier, a broker at Frontier Futures inample. If corn prices continue to rally, amonthAustraliawasexportingcult to shake the uneasiness in theseMinneapolis. it wont take much to keep more wheat toChina.Asidefromthevoidthatcapricious times. That what goes upFeedmakersandmeatpackersmovingintoanimalsdiets.Corn theU.S.coalimportsfulfill,italsoquickly, has tendency to come downcould soon get some relief. While U.S.futures climbed to $6.84 a bushel this helps the PRC meet its $52.4 billioneven faster. acreage estimates disappointed the mar- month, the highest since 2013.Breakbulk Magazine Ad2019-POP copy.pdf 1 8/28/19 12:00 PMcommitmenttopurchasesofenergy products[crudeoilandLNGbeing major export products] which China made under the Phase 1 of the Trump Administrations 2020-21 deal signedPort Of Pascagoulalast January.Of course, the trickle down impacts of the rift is felt in other commodities besides coal. Take for example, barley. ChinaOn the Mississippiimposedanti-dumpingdutiesof 80.5% on Australian barley last May. While Australias barley exports haveGulf Coastdipped, Canadas barley exports have strengthened.Canadasexportsof barley for the 2020/21 crop already have passed a million tonsa normal annualtally.Andwiththeban, Australiahasincreasedshipments ofbarley(usedforfeed)toSaudi Arabia, and Mexico (beer). Besides pumpinguppurchasesinCanada, China has also been purchasing more French grain.QuiteasidefromtheSino-Aus-tralianrift,theimpactofChinas commoditygrabisbeingfeltfar and wide. An April 20 thS&P report, CcitingBrazilsforeigntradedepart-Mment,notedtheSouthAmerican Ygianthadexported10.6million CMtonnesin April,comparedto9.16 million tonnes in 2020. According to MYthe report, 90% of Brazils soy ship-CYments are destined to China. CMYKs upeRc ycles pin R unning Withtheb ullsAnalystsatfinancialinstitutions like J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs arebullishonthecommodityrun15 miles to Gulf Shipping Lanesand believe it could be a Super Cycle event. It has happened before in the42 ft deep channelsearly 2000s (coinciding with the BDI2 Harbors - 10 General Cargo Berthssurge of 2006) when China economicCovered storage / Open storagegrowthimpactedglobalcommodity demand.Duringthatsameperiod,Served by CSX and CN railroads Chinas exports from the factory-to- Specializing in: the-world production also heated up. CouldthisbeanewRoaring20s Breakbulkor a bubble like the Dot Com bust in the1990s or something else altogether.Project CargoesForthemoment,drybulkships Bulk Cargoes(thesurgehasntexpandedtotank-ers) of all classes are making money. Stranger still is the fact publicly traded drybulkoperatorslikeDanaosCor-poration, Safe Bulkers and Stas Bulk Carriers are all seeing their stocks risePortofPascagoula.comand arefor the time beingbusiness media darlings.'