b'16American Journal ofTransportation ajot.comGlobal Terminal Operator Capacity (EYEcontinued fromJulydata,theorderbook- 1,742,474 TEUs.Global Terminal Operator Capacity page 12) to-fleetrationowstandsat tellingfigures.TheNingboonly9.4%or2.21MTEUt hec ontainer and Rank Rank Operator1 Type of Operation Million TEUsOperatorType of Operation Million TEUsContainerFreightIndex[million TEUs]. For the firstg lobalt rade 1 China Cosco Shipping Ocean Carrier 104.4(NCFI)ameasureofcon- time in more than 20 years,So,whyarethecarriers1 China Cosco Shipping 1 Terminal operator 86.6 104.42 PSA International Ocean Carriertainerfreightratesbyroute,the global newbuilding pipe- so confident in a containerized2 PSA International 4 Terminal operator 83.7 86.63 APM Terminals Terminal operatorpegged the composite Indexline thus fell below the 10%trade rebound while geopoliti- 3 4 Hutchison Ports Terminal operator 80.6 83.7at 1390.95 down 20.79% forthreshold. cal conflicts and global infla- APM Terminals 4 Terminal operator 69.55 DP WorldTerminal operatormonth-to-monthandminusFast forward, to the pres- tionarypressuresaredriving4 Hutchison Ports 3 Terminal operator 55.3 80.66 Terminal Investment Limited (TIL) Terminal operator65.68%fortheyear-to-yearentnewbuildingorderbookthe world closer to recession?5 DP WorldTerminal operator 34.3 69.57 China Merchants Ports Terminal operatortally. ThecompositeShang- for boxships. In 2021 the con- The globalization of trade6 Terminal Investment Limited (TIL) 3 Terminal operator 25.9 55.3haiContainerizedFreighttainershipoperatorsbeganaand the expansion of the con- 8 CMA CGM 2 Ocean Carrier ator 12.2Index(SCFI)forNovembermassivebuildingspreethattainer trade have been closely7 China Merchants Ports Terminal oper ator 11.8 34.39 SSA Marine Terminal oper11,2022,wasoff135.92hasonlyjusteasedoff.Thelinked. From the 1990s until8 10 ICTSI Terminal operator 25.9CMA CGM 2 Ocean Carrierpoints from the November 4,currentcontainershiporder- the Great Recession (2008/9)9 11 EurogateTerminal operator 10.4 12.2SSA Marine Terminal operator2022, rate. By way of com- book7.3million TEUswithglobalcontainerthroughput12 Evergreen Ocean Carrier 9.7parisontheSCFIwasover2.3millionexpectedforoutperformed the world GDP.10 ICTSI Hyundai Terminal operator 9.5 11.813 Ocean Carrier5,000atthebeginningofdelivery in 2023 and anotherHowever,since2014,global11 EurogateOcean Carrier 8.4 10.414 Mitsui O.S.K. Line Terminal operatorthe year. And container port2.8 million in 2024. Most ofGDP growth and have moved12 Evergreen Ocean Carrier 7.8 9.715 NYK Ocean Carrierthroughput numbers are onlythese vessels are either VLCSnearly in tandem. And the cur- 13 Primary Source: Drewry Global Container Terminal Operators 2021/2022, Drewry Maritime Research. 9.5marginally better than 2021.(Very-Large Container Ships)rent forecast is that GDP willHyundai Ocean CarrierSecondary Source: NYK Fact BookAlphalinerintheirweek38orULCS(Ultra-LargeCon- slightly outperform container14 1. China Cosco Shipping includes the figure of OOCLs operation. 8.4Mitsui O.S.K. Line Ocean Carrier2. CMA CGM includes the figure of CMA Terminals and Terminal Links operation.[Sept. 19-15] observed, ThetainerShips). Andtheorderthroughput through 2023.153. TIL does not include volume handled by MSC and its subsidiaries. 7.8NYK Ocean Carriertop 20 largest container portsbookisheavilyweightedtoDrewryintheirCon- 4.APM Terminals is part of the A.P Moller/Maersk Group Primary Source: Drewry Global Container Terminal Operators 2021/2022, Drewry Maritime Research.intheworldhandled194.8Alphalinerstop11oceantainerForecasterissuedinThe containership opera- theupswingwillbeevident Secondary Source: NYK Fact BookMTEU [million TEUs] in thecarriers(outoftheAlpha- October is projecting a 1.9%torsandGTOsfundamen- as early as 2024. Drewry in 1. China Cosco Shipping includes the figure of OOCLs operation.first half of 2022 versus 192.6liner Top 100 list) with MSCgrowthin2023but3.5%tallybelievethatcontainertheirContainerForecaster 2. CMA CGM includes the figure of CMA Terminals and Terminal Links operation.MTEU in H1 2022, a year-on- beingtheclearleaderwithgrowthin2024and3.8%trade growth will again out- (EYEcontinued on 3. TIL does not include volume handled by MSC and its subsidiaries.yearincreaseof1.1%Thean orderbook of 125 ships ofgrowth in 2025. 4.APM Terminals is part of the A.P Moller/Maersk Grouppage 23)report also noted the declineperformglobalGDPand incarrierliftings,Collec-tively,liftingsforMaersk, CMACGM,COSCO,ONE, ZIMandHMMdroppedto 50.9 MTEU in the first half of 2022, a decline of 5.5% versus thesameperiodin2021, anddivergingfromthe1% increase in port throughput. Forterminaloperators, collectivelythesenumbers and more like them are a clear signal demand is waning and inturn,terminalvolumes inevitably will drop.So,whyaretheGTOs anxious to expand? While it seems counterintuitive, simi-lartoWallStreetinvestors buying during a stock market down-cycle,forGTOsthis is the key time for strategic positioningforthenextbig wave of container demand. And there are a number of indicators that even during thisrecessionaryinterlude, globalcontainertradeis goingtoexperienceanother growth spurt.and GTOs are willing to bet money on it.c ontainershipo rderss oarThere are multiple reasons for the surprisingly expansive approachGTOsareadopt-ing in this down-cycle. To a degree, it starts with the con-tainershipoperatorsthem-selvesmany of which have a stake in the terminals they call at.Andtounderstandthe currentstateoftheocean carriers,itshelpfultotake a step back to the middle of theCOVID-19crisiswhen global trade had slowed to a crawlamidlockdownsand dwindling demand.Alphaliners weekly news-letterofJuly22-28reported, The global containership order-book, seen as a percentage of the world fleet, has dropped toahistoriclowpointthis month, continuing the declin-ingtrendofthepastfew years.AsperAlphaliners'