b'16American Journal ofTransportation ajot.com(FORECASTcontinued from page 15)profitswillincrease9.6%in2024and9.0%in 2025, up from their 6.9% gain in 2023, said Yaros.Reports from the field confirm the economists optimisticview.Ourmembersarelookingfor-ward to a growth year in 2025, largely from expec-tations that interest rates will decline, said Tom Palisin, Executive Director of The Manufacturers Association,aYork,Pa.,-basedconsortiumwith nearly 500 member companies (mascpa.org). The changeinfortunescantcomesoonenough,he added. High interest rates have been putting con-straints on many of our members who have been Top 50 NA Trucking Companies 25 trying to maintain their financial margins, so relief in this area will be helpful.Trucking trends 2025 h ealthye mPloymentThe economy does better when people are opti-mistic, since consumer spending accounts for a large The trucking industry is in a better position entering 2025 than it was for theportion of the nations business activity. While con-past two years. But the trucking economy still faces some great unknownssumersremaintroubledbytheresidualeffectsof as to operational costs and how the US economy will perform in 2025 inflation in the form of high prices for gas and gro-ceries, they remain in a fairly good mood. We look for consumer confidence to move slightly higher in Debra Phillips, AJOT 2025, said Scott Hoyt, Senior Director of Consumer Economics for Moodys Analytics (economy.com). Trucking companies are positioned for a bettertion market and potential for increased volumes.Why the optimism? Healthy employment levels. year in 2025 than the previous two years. Accord- BusinessesarealsoshowingsignsofinventoryWe look for the unemployment rate to end 2025 at ing to industry analysts, the freight recession thatnormalization, leading to a more stable demand for4.2% and 2026 at 4.2%, said Yaros. This is roughly has impacted trucking companies has ended afterfreight transportation. in line with the 4.1% reported toward the end of several difficult years. One factor that points to theWhilethefreightrecessionhasended,the2024. (Many economists peg an unemployment rate end of the freight recession is a significant reduc- trucking industry still faces strong headwinds. Theof 3.5% to 4.5% as the sweet spot that balances tionintruckingcapacity. Thousandsoftruckingchangingregulatoryenvironmentcontinuedhighthe dual risks of inflationary wage escalation and companies and freight brokerages, from huge cor- rates for insurance and the potential impact of tar- economic recession.) porationstosmallerfirms,closedtheirdoorsiniffs could negatively impact trucking companies andIf favorable unemployment figures will encour-2023 and 2024. While unfortunate, analysts stateconsumer prices, according to the American Truck- ageconsumerspending,employersshouldalso that these conditions will lead to a rebalancing ofing Associations(ATA),theadvocacyagencyforenjoy relief from the deleterious effects of the past supply and demand. the trucking industry. years tight labor conditions. Indeed, a slowdown DatasourcesincludingACTResearchandA persistent shortage of qualified drivers contin- in the rate of hiring has already helped loosen the Bankof Americastatethatrisingspotratesforues to challenge carriers, as well as a lack of techniciansemployment market. Labor shortages are a thing dry-van truckloads indicate a stronger transporta- (TRENDScontinued on page 18) (FORECASTcontinued on page 19)'