b'24American Journal ofTransportation ajot.comThe double whammy Part 1:Tariffs and U.S. auto demand in 2025?Coming into 2025 the business for roll on/roll off ships, better known as Ro/Ros, was rolling along. Now with levying of tar-iffs, other regulatory uncertainties and questionable economic conditions, collectively impacting the Ro/Ro carriers principal source of income, the transport of autos and other vehicles, the road ahead looks a great deal bumpier. By George Lauriat, AJOTCominginto2025,theglobalautoenterprise and as the CAR study writes,industryhadreasonstobeoptimistic.A U.S. domestic vehicle, comprised After all, the newcar market sales hadof 100% domestically-produced content, risentopre-pandemicheights,andthedoes NOT currently exist. United States-U.S. economy was purring along like aproduced vehicles have foreign parts con-well-tuned automobile.tent ranging from 20% to 91%, according andBut in February 2025 the auto sector,toAmericanAutomobileLabelingActRO/RO TRANSPORTATION particularly the outlook for Ro/Ros,(AALA) data.drastically changed as the Trump Admin-istration let loose a double whammy ona Pril29 Tha djusTmenT 2025the auto industry and its supply chaininP roclamaTion& a uToc osTswhich Ro/Ro carrier services represent theOfcourse,thetariffcostsforUS longest and often most costly links in the(DOUBLEcontinued on page 28) A Grimaldi Ro/Ro vessel docked at Red-Hook Atlantic Terminal.chain.In a sense the Trump administra-tions combined moves were the economic equivalent of getting rear ended and then slamming into the car in front of you. F eBruary1 sTeoanda uTomakersIt all started with President Trumps executiveorder(EO)onFebruary1st, 2025,placingtariffsonimportsfrom MexicoandCanadaat10%[bothkey contributorstoUSautomanufacturing]THE AURORA CLASSand a 25% tariff on imports from China [also a key contributor of auto parts andSAILING FOR SUSTAINABILITYimporter of Tesla EVs]. From that point on there has been a regular flurry of EO tariff announcements emanating from the White House, peaking with the extensive globaltariffblastonso-calledLibera- The Hegh Autoliners Aurora Class is the largest and most tion Day April 2, 2025, with EO 14257,environmentally friendly PCTC ever built, reducing carbon whichtankedstockmarketsaroundtheemissions by up to 58% per transported car compared to world. Naturally, the US tariff offensive hasbeenmetwithknee-jerkretaliatorythe current industry average.tariffsissuedbynearlyeveryUStrade partner leaving a confusing landscape forThe rst Aurora-class vessels have already entered automakersandothersinvolvedinthecommercial service, with the rst Net Zero vessels, industry to negotiate.At this writing, much is in flux asdesigned to run on ammonia, scheduled for thequestionofwhichtariffscanbedelivery from 2027.levied through EOs is being challenged and appears destined for a date with the USSupremeCourt.However,thereis considerable data on the impacts that the tariffs would have on automakers and the auto industry as a whole should the tar-iffs be applied.The Center for Automotive Research, appropriately and better known as CAR, issued a report in April entitled, Tariff ImpactAnalysisonAutomakersinthe United States with a subhead of 25% TariffsImported Auto Parts and Light Vehicles.Theindependentautothink tankappliedtheanalysistowhatthe dollarimpactofthe25%wouldbe based on production figures from 2024. According to CAR, the total cost to lightvehicleproductionwouldbe$43 billionwithanaveragecostpervehicle of$4,239.TheimpactontheUSauto industryofimportedvehicleswouldbe $64.7 billion with an average tariff cost of $8,722. Overall, the 25% tariff would cost the US auto industry $107.7 billion with increased production costs associated with imported parts, $43 billion and increased vehicle costs, another $64.7 billion. To put this in perspective, the $107.7 billion in increased cost is against a pro-jectedUSautomakerstotalrevenueof $326.2 billion for 2024. In other words, the increased costs from tariffs represent about 33% of the estimated total revenue for US automakers in 2024.And while the goal of the car tariffs is to aid US automakers, it is worth notingPhoto in courtesy of Hafen Hamburg Marketing e.V. thatautomanufacturingisaglobal'