b'4American Journal ofTransportation ajot.comIntermodals near-term future Truckloadtaking a bite wild cards abound out of intermodal volumesBut rate and cost changes may signal the bottom Import volumes, trucking market conditions, and a West Coastof a cycle.recovery are all factors.By Peter Buxbaum, AJOTBy Peter Buxbaum, AJOT Besides all the other head- A report from the Kear-Anyexaminationofthebeginningofananticipatedrailroads,saidGray.U.S.windsfacingtheintermodalneymanagementconsulting falloff in intermodal volumesfreight rebound.portvolumes,especiallysector so far this year, com- firmindicatedthat,coming sofarthisyearmustbeginRailintermodallargelyontheWestCoast,havepetitionfromthefulltruck- into2023,roadfreightwith the caveat that year-over- carriesconsumergoods,alreadybeentrendingdownload sector has also frustratedwhich constitutes the largest yearcomparisonsarebeingnoted John Gray, senior viceformonthsandareamajorthe ongoing efforts to convertchunk of logistics spendingcontrastedwiththerecord- presidentoftheAAR,butreasonwhyrailintermodalmoreover-the-roadship- sawlittlechangeinoverall breakingfirsthalfof2022,recentspendingongoodsvolumeshavebeenonthementstointermodalrail.volume,butanincreasein the height of the COVID-19has cooled considerably and,decline in 2023. Import con- Truckingcompaniesaddedcapacity, leading to a sharp consumerbuyingbinge.Aswith it, intermodal volumes.tainer volumes at West Coastmassivelytotheircapacitydecline in spot rates, induced theeconomybegantonor- But, he added, the three non- portsdeclinedby20.4%induringthepandemicfreightshipperstoincreasetheir malize, and consumer spend- July 4 weeks in July were thethesecondquarterof2023spike, leaving them with lotsuseofmotorcarriersatthe ingshiftedtowardsservicesthreehighestvolumeinter- and 18.9% in June, accordingof idle equipment as volumesexpense of intermodal.ratherthangoodsbeginningmodal weeks of the year.to The McCown Report. normalizedandremainedTruckers have hired driv-in the second half of last year,AroundhalfofU.S.Onaregionalbasis,thestagnant this year. The result- ers and brought on tractor and containers carrying consumerintermodalshipmentsareseven highest-density intermo- ing rate plunge made trucks atrailercapacity,concurred goods arriving at major Northrelated to international trade,dal corridors, which collectivelymore attractive alternative toa report from the Intermodal Americanportsbegantosowhathappensatports(CARDScontinued onintermodal from a cost and a(BITEcontinued on decrease,leadingnaturallyisextremelyimportanttopage 16) service perspective. page 19)to fewer of those containers ending up on the rails. The latest numbers show that the decline in intermodal volumemaybemoderating, which would indicate brighterONE FAMILYprospects for the second half of this year and for 2024, but therearestillotherfactorsTWO BRANDSworkingagainstintermodal. One is the increased compe-tition from the full truckload sector, where massive capac-ityincreasescombinedwith stagnant volumes led to rateContainer Maintenance Corporation drops. (See box Truckloadtaking a bite out of intermo- and ITI Intermodaldal volumes) Another factorare joining forcesistheshiftofimportsfrom West Coast to East Coast and Gulf ports, where intermodal islesscompetitive.Despite anewcontracthavingbeen reachedbetweenmanage-ment and labor which averted a threatened West Coast port strike, any major cargo shift backfromEastto Westhas yet to materialize. Yetathirdwildcard involvestheoverallfreight picture.Itsexpectedto improve in the second half of this year, but the question is byhowmuch.Retailersare still destocking excess inven-toryfrom2022,andthere areindicationsthattheyare being cautious about restock-ing this year.DuringthefirstsevenBIGGER, BETTER, STRONGER TOGETHERmonthsof2023,U.S.rail-roadsintermodalvolumes were down 9.6% from last year, accordingtonumberssup-pliedbythe American Asso-ciationofRailroads(AAR). Thatcomparessomewhat favorably to total U.S. inter-modal traffic for the first six months of 2023which was down 10.3%. Looking at the monthlynumbers,declines in March and April were both well into the double digits13.3%and12.7%,respec- CMC-ITI .COMtivelywhile May intermodal volumesweredown11.1%,SOLUTIONSCAPACITYSALESSTORAGEREEFERM&RROAD SERVICESJunesweredownby7.0%, andJulysby5.5%,indi- WHERE YOU NEED ITcatingthepossibilityofthe BSYA 1030 CMC-ITI merger AJOT 8x10_r8.indd 1 8/11/23 11:45 AM'