b"12American Journal ofTransportation ajot.com2026 shipping trends indicate another yearAre China imports of uncertainty falling or rerouting Current shipping trends point to continued trade volatility in 2026, with no end tothrough SE Asia?tariff uncertainty and geopolitical barriers in sight.By Pete Goldin, AJOT By Pete Goldin, AJOTCurrent shipping trends point to continued tradedifficulttomakeaccuratepredictionsintodaysChina-originimportscontinuedtoweakenin volatility in 2026, with no end to tariff uncertaintyever-changing trade environment. I think the levelDecember, while Southeast Asian countries gained and geopolitical barriers in sight. of uncertainty and volatility is going to continue toshare, according to Descartes. At 31.7%, Chinas DescartesreportsintheDecemberGlobalbe high in 2026. shareoftotalUScontainerimportsinDecember ShippingReport,Delayedtariff2025 is the lowest compared to the same month in increasesandscaled-backtradec all oFd Uty each of the last six years, states the Global Ship-actions provided limited near-termUnsurprisingly,unpredictabletar- ping Report. relief,butbroaderuncertaintyiffswillcontinuetohaveamajorThe key story of China is that its going to con-including USChina trade tensions,impact on trade. TheGlobal Ship- tinue to be volatile, but unofficial data from the first ongoing Red Sea disruptions, andpingReportstates,Liberationhalf of January this year is on trend historically, says elevatedgeopoliticalrisktiedtoDaytariffsremaininforcepend- Jackson Wood, Director of Industry Strategy, Global developments in Venezuelacon- ing Supreme Court review, and theTrade Intelligence for Descartes, adding that the rela-tinues to shape the global shippingreciprocal tariff framework enactedtionship between China and the US has many dimen-environment entering 2026. inAugustcontinuestoimposesions, and factors other than tariffs come into play, The Descartes report says totalduties ranging from 10% to 41% onsuch as U.S. export controls and technology access.2025importvolumesfinishedgoods from more than sixty tradingContrastingChina,othercountriesinSouth-0.4% below 2024, reversing a yearpartners, keeping tariff risk a cen- east Asia showed gains in December. The Descartes that started with nearly 10% YoYJackson Wood, Director of Industrytralandongoingconsiderationinreport shows strong MoM gains for South Korea growth. In 2025, many companiesStrategy, Descartes supply chain planning. (16.6%), Taiwan (14.1%) and Vietnam (5.6%), and were front loading imports to avoid the uncertaintyConsideringtheimpactthatYoY gains for Thailand (28.3%), Vietnam (21.5%) causedbythetariffs,explainsJacksonWood,tariffs and tariff uncertainty had in 2025and theand Indonesia (19.6%), with expanding volumes Director of Industry Strategy, Global Trade Intelli- most recent comments from the White House fromSoutheast Asiapartiallyoffsettingsustained gence for Descartes. The seasonal declines throughthis volatile environment is certainly showing noweakness in China-origin imports.thelatterhalfof2025mirroredhowthemarketsigns of abating, and it may even be increasing,Though the raw data may suggest that South-behaved in previous years, so I think the story isWood agrees. east Asia is stepping in to fill a void, it could also over-performance early, and more normalized per- Wood also points out that tariff enforcement isreflect companies operating in China, with a footprint formance later in the year. becomingparticularlyrobust,citingtheestablish- in some of these other countries, trying to navigate Sohowdoes2025reflectonprojected2026ment of a US Department of Justice (DOJ) task forcearoundtheonerousU.S.tariffsonChinese-origin import performance? While pundits may be fore- created in August, working with the Department ofproducts,Woodconsiders.Isaproductcoming castingasofteningofimportsinearly2026andHomeland Security to target evasion of tariffs, dutiesfrom Vietnam actually originating in Vietnam? Thats a rebound later in the year, Wood warns that its(TRENDScontinued on page 19) where supply chains get a little bit more opaque.Building what yourcustomers need.Port Houston is investing in infrastructure. We have added capacity at our Bayport Container Terminal with the addition of a new wharf and cranes, and weve expanded the Houston Ship Channel through the Galveston Bay Reach, allowing for larger vessels and improving efciency along on the nation's number one waterway. Get your cargo to your customers faster by choosing Port Houston.www.porthouston.com"