b'4American Journal ofTransportation ajot.com(UNCERTAINTYcontin- resolved in 2026.ued from page 2) separatingNRFVicePresidentforTop 20 North Americanchanges to regional trade areSupplyChainandCustomsContainer Portsunderway,andPolicy Jonathan Gold in ana- 2024outeconomicandsecuritylyzingthecurrentsituationRankPortState 2024 TEUSData/Dateconsiderationsisbecomingsaid, There should be a brief1Port of Los AngelesCA9,447,731Jan-Novclose to impossible. The riskbumpinimportsthismonth2Port of Long BeachCA9,881,5952025ofregionalconflictisalsoahead of Lunar New Year fac- 3Port of New York/New JerseyNY/NJ8,245,060Jan-Novintensifying,owingtoten- toryshutdownsinAsia,but4Port of Savannah (Georgia Ports)GA5,251,850Jan-Novsions over Taiwan, the Southwereotherwiseheadedinto5Port of Houston TX3,971,643Jan-NovChinaSea,andotherflash- the post-holiday shipping lull6Port of VancouverBC-CA3,473,887Jan-Novpoints. And Vickers addingthat comes each year. Retailers7Port of Virginia VA2,974,065Jan-Novinhisanalysisthatnationshad a busy holiday season and8Port of Seattle-Tacoma*WA2,918,676Jan-Novin the region have made, Aare assessing whats ahead in9Port of CharlestonSC2,370,687Jan-Novturntowardsstockadeeco- 2026 so they can keep supply 10Port of OaklandCA2,253,9762025nomics,albeitonapartialchainsrunningsmoothly. 11Port of MontrealQUE-CA1,464,3202025basis, andvarying speeds.Retailers are hoping for more 12Port of JacksonvilleFL1,388,814FY 2025However, Asia isnt alone,stabilityandcertainty,espe-13Port EvergladesFL1,167,552FY 2025as the US has begun surround- ciallyregardingtariffsand 14Port of MiamiFL1,115,058FY 2025ingthecountryseconomictrade policy, in 2026. 15Port of Philadelphia (PhilaPort)PA889,2682025infrastructurewithafortress 16Port of Prince RupertBC-CA885,7972025of regulatory measures, com- G reenland , B azooka17Port of BaltimoreMD837,492Jan-Novpellingothernationsaroundd iPlomacy andW orldt rade18Port of Mobile**AL500,0002025the world to do the same.Contributing greatly to that 19Port of HalifaxNS-CA 384,563Jan-OctAndVickersobserva- trade uncertainty is the capri-20Port of New OrleansLA263,961Jan-Julytionsareimportant,as Asiaciousness of White House pol-and particularly China is stillicies and their impact on global* Northwest Seaport Alliance contains some domestic TEUs Source: Various Ports Datatheregionthatfillthecon- (UNCERTAINTYcontin- ** Port of Mobile is an estimate based on public sourcestainers that fill the ships thatued on page 6)call on US ports and end up filling the NRFs reports. John D. McCown, author of the widely cited McCown Report,whichtracksthe volumesofthetenlargest UScontainerportslargely agreeswiththeNRFTEU port volume assessment with somenuancedanalysison the impact of tariffs and con-tainer trade trends.Inaninterviewwiththe AJOT, McCown said, At one point, I thought that we could seesomethinglikea20% reduction in volume from tar-iffsand in theory, the tariff reduction should be a one-time hit. And then you go back to whateveryour[TEU]growth is. Although its going to prob-ablybeless[TEUvolume] going forward. But its just a head scratcher because we now haveanadministrationthat reallyseemstobeanall-out assault on trade.As the China Lunar New Year approachesthe Year of the Horseinternational trade will enter its annual lull period. Following Christmas andtheNewYearholiday period there is usually a brief increaseofcontainervol-umes, a partial restocking of inventories. For containership analysts this period is a sort of preview to what the year mightlooklike.However, theadministrationschaotic approachinapplyingtariffs [atthiswritingadecision onachallengetoinvalidate theadministrationsInterna-tionalEmergencyEconomic PowersAct(IEEPA)tariff policyintheUSSupreme Court has not yet been deter-mined] has disrupted normal trading patternsas reac-tiontodisruptionsrather thanplanningdominates supplychaindecisions.But evenshouldtheSupreme Court rule against the admin-istrationstariffpolicythere undoubtedlywillbeaplan B.So,itisunlikelythat the specter of tariffs will be'