b'JANUARY 2026American Journal ofTransportation 23Air cargo outlook: Interview with Henri Le Gouis, EVP,(EMBRACEScontinued from page 10)in support of cleaner air was adopted last November, Global Freight Forwarding, Geodis when the Long Beach and Los Angeles harbor com-missions approved a cooperative agreement with the By Stuart Todd, AJOT South Coast Air Quality Management District. This first-of-its-kind agreement contains time-bound and In an interview with the AJOT, Henri Le Gouis,cargo,butmoreselectiveandproject-driventhanenforceablecommitmentstodevelopzero-emis-Executive Vice President, Global Freight Forward- the e-commerce boom. sions infrastructure at the nations largest port com-ing,atFrenchlogisticsgroup,Geodis,looksbackAs for other air cargo verticals that are likelyplex. This cooperative agreement would not have on how air cargo markets performed last year andto prosper in 2026 and beyond, Le Gouis high- been possible without the leadership of our Mayor, considers what 2026 may bring to alights semiconductors, high-tech,the guidance of our Harbor Commission, the dili-continuing backdrop of global tradeluxury and pharma/healthcare asgence of our staff, the cooperation of our partners tensions and geopolitical upheaval. the most promising. at AQMD and the City and Port of Los Angeles, He also highlights some of theSemiconductors and advancedand the strong support of partners like PMSA and latestdevelopmentsandemergingelectronicswillcontinuetobene- ILWU. This important agreement sets us on a path trends that are shaping the sector. fit from AI, electrification and theto ensure we meet our zero-emissions goals faster.A year of resilient, moderatereconfigurationofglobalsupplyThePortisalsoworkingtodevelopGreen growth is how Le Gouis describeschains.PharmaandhealthcareTrucking corridors: We are also working with key 2025 for global air cargo. remainsstructurallystrongduepartners to establish the nations first Green Truck-Volumes increased year-on-year,toageingpopulations,innovationing Corridor. Its time that we take the success of supportedbye-commerce,high- pipelinesandthegrowingimpor- our green shipping corridors inland and deploy the tech and industrial flows. Capacitytanceoftemperature-controlled,cleanest trucks in some of the busiest trucking routes continuedtoadjustdynamicallycompliant logistics.in our region.across regions, and while some lanesAt Geodis, pharma is a clearHacegaba also cited the example of 4 Gen Logis-sawpressure,theoverallmarketHenri Le Gouis, Executive VP, Globalstrategic priority, as illustrated intics: 4 Gen Logistics met its commitment to become remained balanced, he explained. Freight Forwarding, Geodis the opening of a healthcare centera 100% zero-emissions drayage company, making 4 In terms of pricing, rates wereofexcellenceinChicagoandGen the first drayage company in the nation with broadly stable across the year, with a lower season- another one in Manchester (UK). This underlinesmore than 75 trucks and a fully zero-emissions fleet, ality and stayed above pre-Covid levels. our ambition to further strengthen our capabilitiesand with most of that fleet charging and residing in From Geodis perspective specifically, last yearin the vertical, invest in expertise, quality processesour Port.was characterized by very uneven demand depend- and compliance, and support customers with end-to- Hacegaba also emphasized the Ports support for ing on the trade lane and the vertical. end, specialized solutions. the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and We saw strong activity in time-critical, high- The group is also seeing continued strength in aero- its goal of zero emission shipping by 2050: 2050 valueandspecializedsegments,alongsidesignif- space, defense and industrial AOG (Aircraft on Ground)is an important year for our industry: The Interna-icantvolatilityine-commerceflows.Wedonottype flows, where speed and reliability are critical. tional Maritime Organization established a legally disclose global tonnage or yield figures but our pri- binding framework to reduce greenhouse gas emis-ority throughout the year was on securing capacity,m odalS hiFt ? sions from ships globally, aiming for net-zero emis-maintaining service reliability and helping custom- As for certain verticals shifting from air to oceansions by2050.ers navigate a very dynamic market environment. freight as a result of slacker capacity in the latter mode,accompaniedbyadeclinerates,LeGouist erminalU PGradeSt hey eara head reckons any such switch is limited in scope. There were several terminal upgrades in 2025: Turning to 2026, Le Gouis noted that the yearWhen ocean capacity is abundant and rates areInJulyagroundbreakingwithourlong-valued had started on a relatively soft note but the first signslow, we typically see non-urgent retail, lifestyle goods,tenant,InternationalTransportationServiceand of recovery in volumes became apparent from Weekand some standard industrial products migrate backMacquarie AssetManagement,tocreate19acres 3 (of January) onwards. to sea. However, pharma, critical components, high- of new land at Pier G and build a single, continu-With Chinese New Year falling later than usualvalue electronics, aerospace and AOG shipments areous wharf measuring 3,400 feet. The improvements this year, we expect demand to build progressivelymuch less sensitive to ocean rates and will continuewill enable ITS to host two of the industrys largest in the coming weeks as shippers move closer to theto rely on air. So, any modal shift would mainly affectcargo ships concurrently with 50% more capacity holidayperiod.Despitethecomplexgeopoliticalprice-driven, non-time-critical segments. High-valueto handle more containers efficiently at this outer environment, air cargo volumes are expected to holdgoods and spare parts will keep on flying. harbor terminal.up well and continue to grow. The proposed development is of the first con-DemandhasprovenresilientasChinaandSe a Sia n ortha merical aneS tronGeSt ventional,zero-emissionscontainerterminalin othermanufacturinghubsdiversifytheirtradingAs for specific trade lanes, Le Gouis pointedthe world. In November, our Harbor Commission partners, and new industries such as cloud comput- to Southeast AsiaNorth America and in particular,approvedanexclusivityagreementwithBrook-ing and data centers are generating significant high- Vietnam-US as the strongest for air cargo demandfield Infrastructure Group, which is partnering with value, time-sensitive shipments. at presentreflecting manufacturing shifts (awayNautilusInternationalontheproposeddevelop-Capacity growth will remain a key feature of thefromChina)anddynamice-commercegrowth.ment of Metro Express Terminal, on Pier S contem-market, with continued fleet expansion and additionalMore broadly, other Asia PacificNorth America andplated to handle up to 1.8 million TEUs annually for bellycapacitycomingback.Thatsaid,carriersAsiaMiddle East trade lanes are also very buoyant.express vessels of up to 9,000 TEUs.havebecomeincreasinglyagileinadjustingnet- Bycontrast,ChinaUSvolumeshaveweakenedPacific Container Terminal at Pier J looks for-works and redeploying aircraft across regions, whichyear-on-yearandEuropeAsiaisrelativelysoft,ward to the Deep Draft Navigation project that we shouldhelpavoidmajorstructuralimbalances.with demand lagging behind rapid capacity growth.are pursuing with our partners at the Army Corps In this context, Geodis is expecting a broadly bal- South AmericaUS flows have also softened, withof Engineers.ancedmarketin2026.Whileadditionalcapacityvolumes increasingly redirected to Europe.could put some pressure on yields on specific lanes,o nd ockr ailoverallratelevelsarelikelytoremainrelativelyr econFiGUration oF e -c ommerceF loWS Progress continues with the Pier B on dock rail stable, supported by structurally strong demand andAs for the impact of the end of de minimis in theproject: The development of modern, sustainable disciplined capacity management, Le Gouis observed. U.S. for low-value parcels and the response to suchinfrastructure is all part of our 10-year, $3.2 BIL-Of course, what we cannot foresee is the impactregulatorychangesbyChinesee-commerceplat- LION-DOLLARCapitalImprovementProgram, of geopolitical events. forms, Le Gouis highlights that there has clearlythe largest of any seaport in North America. And been a reconfiguration of e-commerce flows. Somethecenterpieceofthisisthe$1.8billion-dollar ai:then eWG oldene GG ? volumes that previously moved directly into NorthOn-Dock Rail Support Facility at Pier B. We call it Since the pandemic, cross-border e-commerceAmericahavebeenredirectedtootherregions,Americas Green Gateway. It will double the acre-has arguably been air cargos golden egg - a seem- including Europe. age of the existing rail yard and more than triple ingly constant source of buoyant demand, soakingForGeodis,thishasmeantadaptingcapac- the volume of cargo moved by rail from 1.5 to 4.7 up capacity. Can the rapidly advancing AI revolutionity, customs processes and distribution solutions tomillion TEUs.have a similar transformative impact on the sector? support new routing strategies. The main challengeThis would be complemented by proposed rail We do believe that AI and data center invest- has been managing volatility and the speed at whichmergers: Last July, the railroad sector made major ments will become a meaningful growth driver forplatforms change their logistics models. newswiththeproposedmergerofUnionPacific air cargo, although not in exactly the same way asThe European Union is ending its de minimisand Norfolk Southern. This would establish the first e-commerce, Le Gouis replied. rule from July 2026, adding a 3 fee to low-valuetranscontinentalrailroadinU.S.history.And,in E-commercegeneratedmassive,continuouse-commerceparcels,amovelikelytoreshapeNovember, BNSF Railway and CSX announced the volumes. AI-related projects will drive high-value,e-commerce flows rather than cause a structural dropexpansion of their intermodal partnership for faster time-sensitive shipments of servers, semiconduc- in total air cargo volumes, according to Le Gouis.interline service connecting Long Beach with rail tors and critical components, which are well suitedExperience on the Transpacific shows that whenterminals in the Ohio Valley and the Northeast. This toairfreight,especiallyduringdeploymentande-commerceflowsdecline,partofthevolumeiswill cut transit times by as many as two days.upgrade phases. replaced by general air freight rather than disappear- Meanwhile, BNSF continues to build the Bar-However,aportionoftheinfrastructureising. In 2025, reduced ChinaUS e-commerce wasstow International Gateway. This BIG project will heavyandlesstime-criticalandwillcontinuetopartly offset by a strong recovery in general cargo,improve supply chain fluidity and enhance the com-move by ocean. So, it is a strong opportunity for airkeeping overall demand resilient. petitiveness of the nations largest port complex.'