At the start of last month, the European Union (EU) suspended its de minimis rule, which applied to parcels worth less than €150 (approximately $175), and replaced it with a flat-rate customs duty of €3 per item from non-EU countries.
When the US removed its de minimis exemption for goods valued at less than $800 in August 2025, it led to an immediate and significant decline in cross-border e-commerce traffic.
Shift Toward Higher-Value Cargo
In its latest logistics and services update, Maersk noted that “low-value air cargo imports into Europe have fallen by almost 33% year on year (YoY), reinforcing a broader shift away from e-commerce-driven volumes and toward higher-value cargo segments.”
E-commerce traffic handled at Liège Airport in Belgium, Europe’s biggest air cargo hub for this category, also showed a sharp decrease in July.
The airport authority said the new EU customs regulations had “profoundly altered the structure of imports.”
E-commerce parcels handled at the airport fell by 24% in July compared with the same month last year and by 41% compared with June 2026.
At the same time, parcels valued at more than €150 have, according to a customs source, seen a 10% increase, reflecting a shift toward higher-value shipments and rapid adaptation by logistics operators.
Despite the downturn in e-commerce air cargo overall, Liège Airport said it was “maintaining a solid growth trajectory thanks to the diversification of its traditional freight operations.”
Pharmaceuticals, data center equipment and flowers actively underpinned the month’s logistics activity, it added.
The airport’s total cargo tonnage rose by 4% year over year in July 2026, despite a 4% decrease in aircraft movements, illustrating increased optimization of capacity.
Carriers Withdrawing Freighters
In its latest Asia Pacific Freight Report, Taiwan-based global forwarding and logistics group Dimerco noted that the EU’s removal of its de minimis exemption on July 1 has pulled European airfreight capacity down sharply as carriers withdraw freighters. Rates have fallen along with demand, and the traditional summer low was expected to continue through August.
Load factors on Asia-US lanes have reached approximately 90%, with AI and semiconductor shipments replacing e-commerce as the primary capacity driver.
“What we’re seeing is a market split in two. AI demand out of Taiwan just keeps climbing, while the e-commerce base that carried Europe is gone with the de minimis change,” said Kathy Liu, Vice President of Global Sales and Marketing at Dimerco Express Group.
At a webinar in April this year, Henk Venema, DHL Global Forwarding’s (DGF) Executive Vice President of Global Airfreight, noted that in the event of a significant decline in e-commerce air cargo trade between China and Europe, a good deal of freighter capacity would be freed up.
Huge Demand for Hyperscale AI Cargo
He went on to speculate that these freighters could end up playing a role in serving “probably the biggest growth engine of air freight overall in 2026 and beyond—the shipment of hyperscale AI.”
This includes highly scalable computing infrastructure, including large-scale data centers, powerful processors and vast networks used to build, train and run complex AI models.
Venema highlighted the huge volume of demand for freighter capacity coming out of what he called the VTT countries—Vietnam, Thailand and Taiwan—mainly going into the Midwest and Central U.S. for the build-out of data centers and data parks, but also destined for other markets.
Steep Drop in China-US E-Commerce Trade
Market analysts Trade and Transport Group (TTG) published a report earlier this month on the state and outlook of the cross-border e-commerce business and how it will affect the air cargo industry.
It noted that, until recently, B2C shipments accounted for somewhere between 18% and 22% of intercontinental cargo volumes.
Most of this business originates in China, which accounts for more than 80% of cross-border e-commerce revenue. Almost all of it is generated by three platforms—Temu, Shein and AliExpress—which, combined, account for close to 100% of Chinese e-commerce exports.
However, TTG’s research revealed that revenue had dipped by 4.5% in the first half of 2026, with all major markets except Asia Pacific declining significantly.
The prime example was the US market, where the removal of the de minimis duty exemption led to e-commerce traffic from China decreasing sharply from around 110,000 tonnes a month to approximately 35,000 tonnes—although the market had started to normalize since May, TTG noted.
Short-Term Adjustment or Lasting Shift?
Whether the downturn in China-EU e-commerce air cargo trade turns out to be a short-term adjustment rather than a more lasting shift is perhaps too early to call.
If it is the latter, it is likely to lead to a reshaping of the sector’s supply chains, with the logistics operations of Chinese marketplaces more focused on consolidation, bonded warehousing and regional distribution capabilities within Europe, similar to those of Amazon.
A cross-border e-commerce supply chain could emerge that resembles a more traditional retail model, with ocean freight playing a greater role in transporting shipments at the expense of air freight.
For all that, a recovery or rebound in volumes in the China-EU online trade carried by freighters cannot be ruled out, especially as the final quarter of the year approaches and demand for fast-moving consumer goods grows.
In a market advisory, Maersk informed customers that they should review the impact of the new e-commerce customs rules on inventory and distribution strategies, particularly where low-value goods have historically formed part of the supply chain.
Businesses moving technology, retail, and other high-value products are encouraged to share forecasts early, secure capacity for critical shipments in advance, and maintain flexibility around routing options. Proactive planning will be particularly important as the market transitions into the autumn period and businesses prepare for year-end demand.
