Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney secured this week an offer to become the European Union's first associate member, a mostly symbolic victory in his campaign to demonstrate Canada can flourish while decreasing its reliance on the United States.
Now, the EU and Canada will have to define what the offer means and confront issues including opposition from some EU member states and hesitation from Canadian military officials who have long been closely intertwined with the United States.
Carney, in a speech to the European Parliament on Thursday, did not use the term “associate member” proposed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, but said he appreciated her ambition. Some EU countries have objected, with Germany saying the label should be reconsidered, even as it supported a deeper relationship with Canada. There is no precedent or legal definition for EU associate member.
Three European diplomats said they were surprised by the announcement.
'A STATUS THAT DOES NOT EXIST'
Barry Appleton, an international trade lawyer and adjunct professor at Wilfrid Laurier University, said Canada “has been offered a status that does not exist, by an institution that had not cleared it with its own members, in fields where (Canada’s) own constitution limits what we could deliver in turn." Appleton was referring to how powers are divided between the federal and provincial governments.
He said Switzerland spent more than two decades negotiating freer access to the European Economic Area.
Trump, meanwhile, threatened to stop trading with Europe “on many things” and called the proposal to make Canada an associate member “laughable.”
“It’s wise of the prime minister not to get bogged down in terminology and to focus more on the fact that we have new relationships we’re building as we deal with an incredibly unpredictable US administration,” said Greg MacEachern, a senior vice-president at Sussex Strategy Group and former adviser to ex-Prime Minister Paul Martin. “This is absolutely a tremendous point of leverage as the prime minister negotiates with the US to make it clear that Canada has other options."
Carney has said Canadian and EU officials will discuss details at a Montreal summit in late October.
MORAL SUPPORT
On Wednesday, Canada applied to join a British-led rapid response military partnership of 10 North Atlantic member states. Carney has vowed to reduce Canada’s defense reliance on the US, particularly in its vast Arctic region and, in July, announced Canada had selected Germany’s TKMS to build up to a dozen submarines for the Canadian navy.
Still, senior military leaders have said that unwinding Canada’s ties to the US is virtually impossible, with Europe also dependent on the US for security.
Canada's Defense Ministry and the Canadian Armed Forces did not respond to requests for comment.
“Canada is never going to be able to sever ties with the United States military or intelligence because we’re in a continental defense relationship with them,” said Philippe Lagassé, a professor of international relations at Carleton University. “They contribute the vast majority of those assets, so we are going to have to co-operate.”
Lagassé said that geography meant Canada still relied on the US for military support in the event of an attack.
“There is no flotilla coming from Europe,” he said. “Moral support from the EU is probably as much as we could expect.”
The EU accounts for nearly 9% of Canada’s total trade, according to the government. Canada ships around 70% of its exports to the US.
EU officials have been frustrated by Canada’s refusal to open its telecommunications and dairy sectors, said Mark Manger, a professor of political economy and global affairs at the University of Toronto. Although Canada has a trade deal with the 27-member EU, 10 countries have not ratified it.
Canadian agriculture groups frequently complain about EU regulations effectively blocking most trade in meat, and about protectionist measures affecting durum wheat. Some agriculture groups also worry Europe could impose its pesticide restrictions on Canadian farmers in a closer trading relationship.
Diya Jiang, a researcher at McGill University focused on US-Canada relations, said Carney’s efforts to draw closer to the EU could alleviate some of the pressure from Canada’s fractious relationship with the US, but bring their own complications.
“This sends a message that Canada is open for business, but the logistics of negotiating any new relationship with the EU will be difficult because it requires consensus both from the EU side and from the provinces,” Jiang said.
