U.S. President Joe Biden’s comment that Russia may opt for a smaller-scale incursion into Ukraine, combined with the European Union’s reluctance to discuss specific penalties for Moscow, risks deepening concern about how firmly the West would respond to a lesser provocation.
Biden raised the prospect in a news conference on Wednesday that President Vladimir Putin might go for a “minor incursion” or cyber attack on Ukraine as opposed to a full-blown war, noting that could complicate how the U.S. and its allies react, “and we end up having to fight about what to do and not do.”
“My guess is he will move in, he has to do something,” Biden said of Putin.
The White House said after Biden’s remarks that the U.S. remained committed to a strong response to any move by Russia against Ukraine. But Europe and the U.S. have also made clear they would not send in troops themselves. And the EU is still shying away from a group discussion within the 27-member bloc of the details of a potential sanctions package.
That’s even as the U.S., U.K. and others warn that action by Putin could come soon, as he masses troops and equipment on the Ukrainian border. The Russian president denies he currently plans to invade, but is demanding NATO security guarantees that the military alliance says it cannot provide.
“We have been very clear throughout if any Russian military forces move across the Ukrainian border and commit new acts of aggression against Ukraine that will be met with a swift, severe, united response from the United States and our partners,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday in Berlin at a joint briefing in Berlin with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.
One EU diplomat, speaking after Biden’s remarks on Wednesday, said his comments were not being interpreted as a change of course, or a signal that an incursion would be met with a lower response. The official added however the EU might face the difficulty of some member states saying an incursion or other smaller action should not be treated the same as a full invasion.
Another EU diplomat said Biden largely spoke what others see anyway when it comes to Russia, including that the ball is in Putin’s court on what happens from here. The official said there would be consequences for any hybrid or cyber attacks on Ukraine and while Biden’s comments perhaps were less than ideal they shouldn’t be seen as a game changer.
“Every further Russian aggression would have grave consequences,” Baerbock said, adding the only way out of the crisis was via dialog. “It’s a good and important signal that talks are continuing.”
At the same time, concerns about the pace of discussions on potential reprisals are mounting, and the ability to use a sanctions package as a deterrent.
A draft of a joint statement that EU foreign ministers will be asked to adopt on Monday is mostly limited to echoing what the bloc’s leaders agreed last month. The U.S. has been upping the pressure to settle on a package of sanctions soon, showing signs of frustration at the pace of talks with and within the EU despite weeks of talks.
The bulk of any EU-wide response would have to be agreed by all states, and several governments are keen to avoid a group-wide debate for now, fearing it would advertise potential differences, according to a person familiar with talks between senior diplomats. Some states have not yet seen detailed proposals being drafted by the European Commission, the bloc’s executive body, officials said.
Biden also threw a potential wrench into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization messaging on Russia on Wednesday, acknowledging that NATO is highly unlikely to let Ukraine join anytime soon, even as NATO says publicly its door is open to requests for membership.
“The likelihood that Ukraine is going to join NATO in the near term is not very likely, based on much more work they have to do in terms of democracy and a few other things going on, and whether or not major allies in the West would vote to bring Ukraine in right now,” the president said.
His comments, and the EU sidestepping on sanctions, add complexity for Blinken as he goes into a meeting Friday in Geneva with Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov. Russia also said this week it would move forces to Belarus next month for a series of military drills running until Feb. 20.
“We need to see where we are and see if there remain opportunities to pursue the diplomacy and pursue the dialog,” Blinken said after wrapping up meetings in Kyiv on Wednesday.
Some European nations have expressed anxiety that hitting Russia hard could damage their own economies, or perhaps spur Putin to cut off essential gas supplies to them.
The most recent EU draft, which Bloomberg has seen, says that “any further military aggression by Russia against Ukraine will have massive consequences and severe costs.” It says that potential sanctions include “a wide array of sectoral and individual restrictive measures that would be adopted in coordination with partners,” but does not currently go into any detail.
The EU has accelerated preparatory work on potential penalties, it adds. The draft could change before foreign ministers agree to it.
The U.S., the EU and several European governments have held a number of discussions about the specific sanctions they’d adopt if Russia moved against Ukraine. While there is now a broad understanding on general goals—covering restrictions on individuals, sanctions on banks and financial institutions as well as export controls on advanced technologies and key industries –- there isn’t yet a joint agreement on all the details, two of the people said.
Some major western European governments have proposed exemptions to particular sanctions and introducing financial measures gradually. Those nations have also indicated that cutting Russia out of the international payments system Swift is a no-go. The Biden administration has repeatedly said all options remain on the table.
European and U.S. officials familiar with the discussions said that concrete proposals would be shared only once Russia’s actions are known. Sanctions are reactive and not a deterrent, and their nature and scope would depend on what Russia actually does, an EU official said.
Another person said a package of proposals had largely been prepared.
Although the draft conclusions reaffirm the EU’s commitment to support Ukraine in countering cyber threats and tackling disinformation, the bloc’s members have yet to find agreement on what level of military assistance they might provide Ukraine. As the U.K. and the U.S. have shipped defensive weapons to Ukraine, some European nations, such as Germany, have been against arming Kyiv, even with defensive equipment.
