Global growth is at its weakest since the great financial crisis, according to Bloomberg Economics’ new GDP tracker: Growth in the first quarter is running at just 2.1 percent, sharply down from around 4 percent in mid 2018. BE thinks the Federal Reserve pause, a U.S.-China trade truce, and dissipating shocks in Europe will bring stabilization in the second quarter. The risk is that downward momentum will be self-sustaining.