As we head into the year that will make or break Brexit, here’s a look at how the political and economic conundrum could be solved, further complicated – or even abandoned in all but name. Within 10 months, the British government and the European Union aim to have an agreement on their divorce and at least the outline of their future trading relationship. They have different ideas about what Brexit should look like, but also on how the talks themselves should be structured and what they can achieve in the next year. These are some scenarios that could play out as the second act approaches. The Base Case: After a couple of months of uneventful talks, an agreement is reached on the transition deal that businesses have been crying out for to smooth the exit route. It’s not legally binding yet, but it’s enough to prevent a mass exodus of companies. In March, trade discussions start. The EU won’t budge on its refusal to let the U.K. keep the best bits of membership and Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservatives won’t let her make the concessions that would be needed to remain in the EU’s single market. In October there’s an outline agreement. Though vague, it’s detailed enough to be clear that Britain is headed for a trade deal much like the one Canada struck with the EU. It will keep tariffs off most goods but put up barriers at customs, with little help for the service industries that make up most of the U.K. economy. The dreaded cliff-edge scenario has been avoided, but companies start preparing for the trade barriers that lie ahead. No one knows when the detailed trade negotiations will finally end, so businesses are stuck with the outline for a while to come. The Upset: Talks on transition go well enough. Then, by October, it becomes clear that negotiations on the future trade partnership are failing. The question of how to keep the Irish border open without a customs agreement rears its head again. This time, it proves impossible for May to satisfy her three most difficult audiences: the Irish government, which is backed by the EU that it belongs to; Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, which is propping up her government; and the ardent Brexit backers within her own party. May’s minority government collapses and an election is called for November – the first election in the autumn since 1974. With the March 2019 exit deadline looming, the Conservatives have no time to choose a new leader. May takes the party into the short campaign and loses to Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn. At an emergency negotiating session in late December the new government accepts the EU’s offer of membership in the European Economic Area.  It means Britain will maintain full access to its biggest market for goods and services, but now has to accept rules it has no say in making. It has also failed to “take back control” of immigration, a major issue in the Brexit debate. The Walkout: Talks on transition take longer than the U.K. hoped and the start of proper trade discussions is delayed. It soon becomes clear that the services industry is going to be largely left out of the future trade deal. Businesses squeal and Brexit backers at home wonder in public why May agreed to pay a hefty divorce bill in return for such a bare-bones trade accord. Loose ends that weren’t properly tied up in the first few months of talks continue to dog discussions. The EU again reminds the U.K. that it needs to find a way to keep the Irish border open after the split, but it won’t give an inch to help find a solution. The October deadline comes and goes. Toward the end of the year talks break down and the U.K. team reluctantly walks out. Both sides are now hurtling toward a no-deal Brexit in March 2019 unless they can patch things up quickly. Brexit Latest Trade Options | The U.K. has held informal talks about joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Financial Times reported. Trade Secretary Liam Fox is developing the proposal and Greg Hands, a U.K. trade minister, said there’s no geographical reason why Britain couldn’t join the partnership. Ryanair Braces | The Irish carrier is seeking a U.K. air operator’s certificate so that it can still operate in Britain in the case of a messy split with the EU. The move is a precaution, according to the company, which would need a U.K. license to maintain three domestic routes. Rights Vote | Labour will force a vote on how the EU charter of rights will be covered by U.K. law after Brexit, as Labour Brexit spokesman Keir Starmer says the government’s plans so far are inadequate, the Guardian reports. Mad, Clueless | Jim O’Neill, the economist who coined the term BRIC and then served in the Treasury under former Chancellor George Osborne, slammed the U.K.’s trade policy as “mad,” calling Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson “ludicrous” and “clueless” about the global economy. O’Neill, speaking to German newspaper Die Welt, said the government needs to focus on China and should have started doing so straight after the referendum. Fox is on a trade visit to China this week. On the Markets | The pound touched a three-month high on Tuesday after U.K. manufacturing data showed the sector held up in December. Until parliament returns next week and the focus switches back to Brexit, sterling traders will be awaiting the next gauge of the health of the economy from construction and services data due on Wednesday and Thursday, Charlotte Ryan writes. And Finally… In case you missed it over the Christmas period… The government held back historic files relating to EU policy at the end of December in its routine release of documents that are decades old. Almost half the files on the European Union from 1992 – the year Britain was expelled from the Exchange Rate Mechanism and the Conservative government suffered the humiliation of “Black Wednesday’s” currency crash – weren’t released, Robert Hutton wrote last month. The files that were released showed how much the experience turned Conservatives against the EU.