Carriers accelerate Red Sea return with offered capacity doubling in six weeks

Emily Stausbøll, Xeneta Senior Shipping Analyst | Oct 16 2026 at 12:01 PM | Maritime

“The return of container shipping to the Red Sea is accelerating with offered capacity on services transiting or set to start transiting the region in at least one direction doubling in the last six weeks.

“On 5 October, weekly scheduled capacity crossing Bab el-Mandeb at the gateway to the Red Sea in at least one direction stood at 448,273 TEU. While this is still only 48% of the 930,679 TEU offered in August 2023 before ships began diverting around Cape of Good Hope, the fact it has doubled since 27 August 2026 indicates a major shift in strategy from carriers.

“Only carriers can answer what has changed in security assessments in the last six weeks to underpin such a dramatic acceleration in the return to the Red Sea, but whatever the reason, this will see capacity released back into the global fleet and have a profound impact on freight rates and services heading into 2027.

“October does make sense in many ways for a ramping up in Red Sea rerouting because volumes typically come down following peak season. The capacity released into the fleet will also be partially absorbed by the current congestion in global ocean networks, at least for now.

“Shippers must view this latest development in Red Sea services with the highest importance because it will be one of the drivers for ocean container shipping markets in 2027.”

Carriers blank sailings to hold Far East to US rates as Far East to Europe finds its level

“Spot rates from the Far East to the US have remained almost flat for the past month, but we are now in mid-October and through Golden Week, so downward pressure is expected to intensify.

“The telling signal is that carriers are removing capacity, with 58,200 TEU blanked on the Far East to US West Coast trade this week and 35,500 TEU from Far East to US East Coast.

“When spot rates on US trades are still up triple-digit percentages compared to pre-Hormuz crisis in February, carriers would normally be adding capacity rather than blanking sailings, so this looks like the behavior of carriers who don’t believe the market will hold and are protecting the current level rather than expecting further growth.

“On the other side of the coin, Far East to Europe spot rates have stabilized following steady decline, even edging up 2.5% into North Europe and 3.2% into Mediterranean from a week ago. This is likely the balance of supply and demand correcting spot rates that have fallen far enough.

“The Europe and US trades are telling a similar story at different price levels. Spot rates into the US East Coast are more than three times those into North Europe, but carriers cannot sustain a spread this wide for long. When the spread narrows it will be driven by rates into the US falling and to a much smaller degree Europe strengthening – that is exactly what we are now starting to see.”

Data highlights

Market average spot rates – 16 October 2026: