China’s exports rebounded after the Lunar New Year holiday amid a pickup in trade-talks optimism, though an unexpected decline in imports signaled continued fragility in the domestic economy.
- Exports jumped 14.2 percent in March from a year earlier while imports fell 7.6 percent in dollar terms, the customs administration said Friday. That left a trade surplus of $32.64 billion.
Key Insights
- The latest round of trade talks—which Trump hailed as a “big success”—further fueled optimism even as a final deal is not assured yet
- The Lunar New Year fell in 2019 in early February instead of mid-February in 2018, which likely aided March year-on-year comparisons
- Big fluctuations in January to March trade data are mostly due to the Chinese New Year holiday, Customs Administration spokesman Li Kuiwen said at a briefing in Beijing. “Relatively low” growth is due to uncertainties in global demand, he said.
- The yield on China’s 10-year government bonds extended its increase after the data release, rising 3 basis points to 3.31 percent, the highest level this year. Futures contracts on sovereign notes due in a decade slid, while the yuan extended gains in both onshore and offshore markets. The moves indicate traders are pricing in stronger risk appetite and less monetary easing.
- U.S. and Chinese negotiators are discussing adding a concession on cloud computing to their trade agreement that would give foreign companies greater access to the $12 billion Chinese market, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the talks
