China’s overseas shipments rose from a year earlier in June as global demand holds up and trade tensions with the U.S. are kept in check amid ongoing talks. Key Points
  • Exports rose 11.3 percent in June in dollar terms, the customs administration said Thursday. That compares with an estimate of 8.9 percent from a Bloomberg survey
  • Imports increased 17.2 percent in dollar terms, leaving a trade surplus of $42.8 billion
Demand for Chinese products has proven resilient this year as global demand holds up. Tensions with the country’s largest trading partner also appear to be easing after 100-day trade talks due to end on July 16 have signaled some progress toward addressing the deficit run by the U.S. Still, the world’s largest exporter faces challenges and uncertainties in the rest of 2017. After a solid start to the year, the economy has shown signs of weakening momentum, though stronger imports show that domestic demand is resilient. China will release gross domestic product data for the second quarter on July 17, and a comprehensive economic dialog with the U.S. is set to kick off later in the month. Economist Takeaways “Today’s upbeat figures point to still strong foreign demand for Chinese goods, as well as fairly resilient domestic demand,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in Singapore. “We are skeptical that the current pace of imports can be sustained for much longer given the increasing headwinds to China’s economy from policy tightening.” “We still expect export growth to slow in the second half 2017 on stronger renminbi so far this year, and uncertainties in external demand,” Zhao Yang, Nomura Holdings Inc.’s chief China economist, wrote in a note. “The cooling property market leads to slower domestic investment growth, which may weigh on import growth as well.” “The better-than-expected export growth indicates a resilient trade outlook,” said Betty Wang, senior China economist at ANZ Banking Group Ltd. The Details
  • In the first half, exports in yuan terms rose 15 percent compared with the same period a year earlier, to 7.21 trillion yuan
  • First-half imports rose 25.7 percent to 5.93 trillion yuan, customs administration data released earlier showed
  • China Jan-June iron imports rose 9.3 percent year-on-year; crude imports rose 13.8 percent for the same period