China's exports are expected to have expanded at a slightly faster pace in September, sustaining robust momentum despite pressure from some trading partners and remaining an economic growth driver.

Economists polled by Reuters forecast that exports rose 25.5% year-on-year in US dollar terms, accelerating from the 25% growth in August. Import growth is expected to have slowed to 24.5% from 28.2% the previous month. 

The trade surplus is expected to have dipped to $118.10 billion in September from $119.09 billion the previous month, according to the median forecast. China's customs administration will release trade data on Wednesday.

Gantry cranes stand near stacked shipping containers at Yangshan Port outside Shanghai, China, May 7, 2026. REUTERS/Go Nakamura

Another month of solid export performance would indicate the global AI boom kept demand robust for Chinese-made high-tech products and that manufacturers could keep relying on outbound shipments to absorb their production capacity in the face of lacklustre domestic demand.

Pressure from the US and the European Union for China to address its industrial overcapacity and surging trade surplus, which is on track to surpass $1 trillion for a second year, has yet to materially dent Beijing's overall export performance.

China and the US agreed to extend their trade truce and pursue tariff cuts on $30 billion worth of goods for each side following a leaders' summit in Washington last month. An October agreement to limit China's hybrid vehicle exports to the EU deals a blow to China's car exports, though the hit is unlikely to be felt this year. 

China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 50.1 in September ​from 49.8 the previous month, with the sub-indexes for new orders and production both in expansionary territory, indicating a recovery in business sentiment.

Steady manufacturing and export strength would also mean that policymakers could still bank on moderate policy support to meet China's 4.5% to 5% annual GDP growth target, even as weak domestic consumption and investment and a property market slump strain the economy.

The country's top leaders have signalled greater urgency to prop up domestic demand and infrastructure investment after the economy lost steam and the growth rate slowed to a more-than-three-year low of 4.3% in the second quarter. But analysts say they do not expect large-scale stimulus measures unless the export pillar falters.

Third-quarter GDP data are due early next week.