- Despite increasing trade tensions, global trade growth expected to accelerate slightly in the third quarter of 2018
- Growth dynamics continue to primarily come from air trade
- Strong development in South Korea; UK trade growth to further lose momentum
MIAMI - The DHL Global Trade Barometer (GTB) predicts that global trade growth will continue to accelerate over the next three months. Compared to the previous release in March, the overall GTB index rose by one point, now standing at 67 points. According to the GTB methodology, an index value above 50 signals a positive growth forecast. The increase is notable because the data on which the DHL Global Trade Barometer is based show no impact of the current increase in international trade disputes. The rise in the overall index was primarily driven by a slight increase for containerized ocean freight, which has now reached an index value of 64 points (March: 63). The index for global air trade remained unchanged at 70 points.Geography-wise, the global improvement was mainly driven by more optimistic outlooks for China and South Korea. The trade forecast for the US has also improved slightly. The positive impact by these three countries was partially offset by reduced outlooks for India, Japan and the UK. Despite a strong decline by 5 points in the outlook for India, the country still has the highest forecast for overall trade growth with 79 points. In contrast, the UK has the least favorable outlook with now 57 index points, down 4 points compared to March. Germany remains somewhat in between: a significant increase in air trade by 3 points is offset by a 1 point decline ocean trade. This amounts to an unchanged overall forecast for Germany – which is still markedly positive with an index value of 64.
With respect to individual industries, the outlook for Machinery Parts and Components improved most, followed by Consumer Goods and High Tech. Moreover, all industries included in the DHL Global Trade Barometer continue to have a positive trade outlook, except Basic Raw Materials, for which the GTB predicts a significant decline in global trade.
Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global Trade Barometer is a new and unique early indicator for the current state and future development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logistics data that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence. The indicator has been developed in cooperation between DHL, the world’s leading logistics company, and IT service provider Accenture. It is published four times a year. The next release date is September 26, 2018.