For the most part rates still reflect the uptick in air freight yield found at the end of January. We haven’t seen the drop off in rates beyond 2018 levels that a few market participants expected, perhaps establishing a new baseline for air freight rates dictated by carrier sentiment rather than market demand/supply. Price retraction on China-USA baskets, and a slowdown of growth from China-Europe supports price buoyancy rather than demonstrating any significant decline. This time last year we saw the lowest point in the China-Europe market in the first week of March at 2.44USD/KG, with rates currently 0.15USD/KG higher than 12th February 2018.
Importantly, spectators should keep an eye on the development of rates over the next few weeks and months and the effects it will have on forward analysis for September to October.
Core Air Routes (AGRs)
|Airfreight Route (AR)||Description||Previous||USD/KG||Change|
|AGR 1||Average of Hong Kong (HKG) to Los Angeles (LAX) & Chicago (ORD) & New York (JFK)||3.75||3.726||-0.64%|
|AGR 2||Average of Hong Kong (HKG) to London (LHR) & Frankfurt (FRA) & Amsterdam (AMS)||2.77||2.77||0.00%|
|AGR 3||Average of Hong Kong (HKG) to Singapore (SIN) & Bangkok (BKK) & Shanghai (PVG)||1.113||1.123||-0.89%|
|AGR 4||Average of Shanghai (PVG) to Amsterdam (AMS) & Frankfurt (FRA) & London (LHR)||2.75||2.9||5.45%|
|Trade Lane Aggregate||Price/KG||Change||MTD|
|China - EUR||2.86USD||+0.04 (+1.42%)||2.82|
|China - USA||3.70USD||-0.03 (-0.804%)||3.7|
The Forward Curve
Reflecting the softening of the market and the balancing of climbing rates of 2017/2018, the value of February offers has dropped off to a more sustainable level.
Forward Curve - Indicative Update
HKG/CN - Europe Aggregate Lanes - USD/KG
|Cal - 19||3.04||3.14||3.09||0.00|
|Cal - 20||3.44||3.54||3.49||0.00|