In the six months since the US-Israeli attacks on Iran, countries importing fossil fuels have had to stump up an additional USD 55 billion (bn) every month - the largest sustained price shock since the 1990 Gulf War. Without the clean energy expansion of the past five years, the fossil fuel import bill would have been USD 36 bn higher.
Half a year since the Hormuz crisis started (on 28 February 2026), the continuing disruption to global shipping has wreaked havoc across oil and gas markets, adding more than USD 330 bn to fossil fuel import bills, according to new research by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). This estimate is based on the increase in market prices for seaborne oil and gas compared with market expectations before the war, and excludes higher global freight charges and other costs that would push the total higher.
Diesel price spike impacts everywhere, driving inflation
Industry, freight and farming are highly dependent on diesel, so its cost drives up the price of goods well beyond the fuel pump. It is also the most widely felt of these costs: 134 of the 170 countries in this analysis paid more for diesel than their pre-war futures implied. The war premium for diesel has stayed above 55% in five of the six months, dipping to 43% in June before climbing back to 65% by August. Even the US, the world’s largest producer, has not been able to isolate itself fully from the crisis, with the average price of a gallon of diesel rising to USD 5.57 in the week of 17 August – the highest since 2022 and closing in on that year's record (AAA).
Countries that invested in clean energy save USD 36 bn and counting
Beyond geography, a country’s resilience to surging fossil fuel prices has been largely determined by the share of clean power in its energy mix.
“The best way to protect against high oil prices is to get off the black stuff as quickly as possible,” says Luke Wickenden, Energy Analyst at CREA. “Oil and gas prices have long proven to be an Achilles’ heel for both household finances and the global economy as a whole. Meanwhile, countries that invested in clean energy after past energy crises have saved billions of dollars.”
In the first five months of the crisis alone, clean power capacity added since 2020 saved importing countries an estimated USD 36 bn in avoided coal, gas and oil imports.
USD 10.6 bn of those savings exists only because of the war: once the crisis pushed fuel prices up, every tonne of coal or cubic metre of gas these countries no longer needed to buy was money they did not have to pay at inflated wartime prices, on top of what they would already be saving in normal times. “The energy transition is an investment,” adds Wickenden, “so the best day to have started is yesterday.”
Clean energy production isn’t the only thing reducing reliance on volatile fossil fuels: electrification across key sectors like heating and transport is also cutting into demand. The world's electric vehicle fleet is set to replace the use of 5 million barrels of oil a day by 2030 – roughly as much crude as Saudi Arabia is currently moving through the East-West Yanbu pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz (IEA, Global EV Outlook 2025).
Impact lands hardest on the poorest countries
Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, higher oil and gas import costs have hit poorer countries hardest. Low- or lower-middle-income countries paid an additional 1.0% of their 2024 GDP on increased fossil fuel costs — more than twice the 0.45% burden faced by high-income countries.
“Across every fossil fuel product, this crisis is a multi-car pile-up, and where you land depends on what you're driving,” says Wickenden. “Wealthier nations, for whom paying extra is less of a burden in the short term, can absorb the higher prices. That's not the case for lower-income countries that are far more price-sensitive. The countries best placed are the ones already in the EV lane: with fuel imports slashed, they can skirt the pile-up altogether.”
