FTR reported that preliminary North American Class 8 net orders in January totaled 24,000 units, down 28% month-over-month (m/m) and 15% year-over-year (y/y). This figure was below seasonal expectations, falling short of the seven-year January average of 27,950 net orders. With looming threats of significant tariffs among the North American trading partners and increasing uncertainty for market participants, the positive momentum that held throughout the beginning of the 2025 order season appears to be facing some headwinds. Despite this, cumulative net orders from September 2024 through January 2025 for build in 2025 remain 3% higher y/y. Through January 2025, Class 8 orders have totaled 276,917 units over the last 12 months.

While OEMs experienced an overall m/m decline in order activity for January, this softness follows several months of strong seasonal comparisons. The on-highway market accounted for the bulk of the m/m declines as vocational orders were flat m/m.

Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, “A 25% U.S. tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico – currently paused for trade negotiations through early March – and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports as of February 4 could significantly increase costs for North American Class 8 trucks and parts if fully implemented and enforced indefinitely. With roughly 40% of U.S. Class 8 trucks built in Mexico and around 65% of Canada’s Class 8 trucks built in the U.S., tariffs and likely counter-tariffs threaten to disrupt supply chains and drive up vehicle prices. Combined with upcoming U.S. EPA 2027 NOx regulations, tariffs could accelerate or delay fleet upgrades. While OEMs and suppliers may explore shifting production to mitigate potential tariff impacts, such changes are complex and will take some time to implement. Ongoing trade negotiations and policy uncertainties may already be influencing investment decisions and long-term planning for fleets, OEMs, and suppliers.”

Preliminary orders may be estimated and are subject to revision when FTR releases final data mid-month as part of its North American Commercial Truck & Trailer Outlook service.