Class 8 orders came in above expectations at nearly 13,800 units in June, flat versus May and down just 7% y/y. The level of order activity continues to be below replacement demand, however. Total Class 8 orders for the previous 12 months have equaled 297,800 units.

Eric Starks, chairman of the board, commented, “FTR has been anticipating net Class 8 orders to drop over the last several months to below 10,000 units. This has not occurred, which is a positive sign that fleets still need equipment. However, with all the order slots filled for 2023 and 2024 slots yet to be fully opened, it is unclear when these ordered trucks will be built. OEMs have hinted for months that they are willing to keep build activity elevated well into Q4. With the recent solid order totals, it is all but guaranteed that Q4 production will be strong. OEM build slots for 2024 are not expected to open until August at the earliest.”

“The normally weaker orders due to a seasonal mid-year slowdown coupled with strong build activity will keep shrinking backlogs,” Starks added. “This will pull backlogs back into a normal range over the next several months as the backlog-to-build ratio is currently elevated and putting pressure on OEMs to keep building equipment.”

Preliminary orders may be estimated and are subject to revision when FTR releases final data mid-month as part of its North American Commercial Truck & Trailer Outlook service.