FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index for June fell to -6.29 from the previous -3.75, reflecting modestly weaker market conditions for carriers. Freight rates were slightly less negative, but all other key factors deteriorated. June’s TCI reading was the most negative since November.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “Based on our assessment, for-hire trucking companies have already faced the longest period of consistently unfavorable market conditions since the Great Recession. We expect negative TCI readings to continue for nearly a year longer and little, if any, improvement until early 2024. As we have noted before, the challenges are not uniform as the current market is hitting small carriers much harder than larger ones, especially considering the recent upturn in diesel prices.”

Details of the June TCI are found in the August 2023 issue of FTR’s Trucking Update, published July 31. The August edition includes an initial assessment of what Yellow’s demise could mean for LTL rates and additional commentary analyzing the potential for a truck pre-buy before 2027. The Trucking Update includes data and analysis on load volumes, the capacity environment, rates, and the economy.

The TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market. These conditions are: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. The individual metrics are combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. Conversely, a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment, and double-digit readings in either direction suggest significant operating changes are likely.