Air travel in the US over the Memorial Day holiday weekend is forecast to rise to the highest since 2005, driving hopes that strong fuel consumption will counter a bleak economic outlook.

The number of passengers on domestic and international flights in the US during the last weekend in May is projected to top pre-pandemic levels by 5.4%, according to a forecast from AAA and S&P Global. This will likely mean more jet fuel consumption, though rising efficiency in terms of aircraft design and scheduling strategy could dull the fuel impact.

Overall, as many as 42.3 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home this Memorial Day weekend, a 7% increase over 2022, according to the report. These include 2 million more drivers, who are expected to take advantage of lower pump prices this year compared to last, though car travel is still down from pre-pandemic levels. US gasoline demand outpaced year-ago levels by 2% in the latest government data.