Bond issuance in 2023 has remained resilient and in line with our general expectations so far, despite headwinds earlier in the year, S&P Global Ratings said in its article "Global Financing Conditions: Stubborn Rates Portend Slower Issuance Growth In 2023 And 2024," published today.
Most major central banks are likely near the end of their rate hike cycles, but we expect policy rates to stay higher for longer than markets have been anticipating.
"A large refinancing wall ahead will compete with rising longer-term yields and slowing growth, likely slowing new issuance growth in 2024," said Nick Kraemer of S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.
In a pessimistic case, issuance could decline next year if rates become--or stay--higher than currently expected or a recession occurs, causing investors to pull back on demand for new debt.
This report does not constitute a rating action.
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