U.S. imports of containerized goods fell 7.5% year-over-year in October, as shipments from China plunged 16.3% amid importer caution over President Donald Trump's evolving tariff policies, supply chain technology provider Descartes said on Monday.

U.S. seaports handled a total of 2.3 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) last month, down 0.1% from September and below the 2.4 million to 2.6 million TEU range that typically signals peak trade activity, marking only the second October in the past decade to record a month-over-month decline.

As holiday merchandise reaches store shelves and inventories remain well stocked, the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates expect U.S. imports to slow in November and December, likely dropping below the 2 million TEU mark.

A worker cuts grass at a local baseball field as shipping containers from China are visible in the background at the Port of Los Angeles in San Pedro, California, U.S., November 5, 2025. REUTERS/Mike Blake

The anticipated declines this year partly reflect a late 2024 import surge fueled by concerns over potential port strikes and tariff-related frontloading that brought forward shipments originally scheduled for later months.

"Our trade outlook is for a small decline in imports this year compared with 2024 and a further, larger decline in the first quarter of 2026," Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said.

Imports from China, one of the United States' top trading partners, rose 5.4% month-over-month to 803,901 TEUs, but saw broad year-over-year declines in its largest categories with imports of furniture and bedding down 13.6%, toys and sporting goods down 30.4% and electrical machinery down 17.2% compared to 2024.

"October's results reflect ongoing caution among importers, with broad-based year-over-year declines and limited month-over-month growth. With new U.S.–China trade terms now in place following recent negotiations, China's share of U.S. imports may stabilize in the near term," Descartes said.

A 20% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese imports drops to 10% on November 10, while a planned increase in reciprocal tariffs has been postponed for a year. Meanwhile, an existing 10% tariff under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act remains in place with the Supreme Court reviewing its legality.

U.S. import volumes from the 10 largest sources rose 1.3% month-over-month in October, driven by China's recovery but partly offset by declines across Asia, with imports from India, Thailand, and Vietnam falling 19%, 6%, and 4.8%, respectively, according to Descartes.