Current shipping trends point to continued trade volatility in 2026, with no end to tariff uncertainty and geopolitical barriers in sight.
Current shipping trends point to continued trade volatility in 2026, with no end to tariff uncertainty and geopolitical barriers in sight.
Descartes reports in the December Global Shipping Report, “Delayed tariff increases and scaled-back trade actions provided limited near-term relief, but broader uncertainty — including US–China trade tensions, ongoing Red Sea disruptions, and elevated geopolitical risk tied to developments in Venezuela — continues to shape the global shipping environment entering 2026.”
So how does 2025 reflect on projected 2026 import performance? While pundits may be forecasting a softening of imports in early 2026 and a rebound later in the year, Wood warns that it’s difficult to make accurate predictions in today’s ever-changing trade environment. “I think the level of uncertainty and volatility is going to continue to be high in 2026.”
Call of Duty
Unsurprisingly, unpredictable tariffs will continue to have a major impact on trade. The Global Shipping Report states, “Liberation Day tariffs remain in force pending Supreme Court review, and the reciprocal tariff framework enacted in August continues to impose duties ranging from 10% to 41% on goods from more than sixty trading partners, keeping tariff risk a central and ongoing consideration in supply chain planning.”
“Considering the impact that tariffs and tariff uncertainty had in 2025 — and the most recent comments from the White House — this volatile environment is certainly showing no signs of abating, and it may even be increasing,” Wood agrees.
Wood also points out that tariff enforcement is becoming particularly robust, citing the establishment of a US Department of Justice (DOJ) task force created in August, working with the Department of Homeland Security to target evasion of tariffs, duties and import restrictions.
Accordingly, Wood advises importers and logistics-intensive businesses to treat tariffs as a core compliance risk, not just a finance issue, and he believes tariffs are likely to become a board-level reference point. “I think that’s going to be a headline issue through 2027. Organizations will move duties and tariffs from an accounting afterthought to a more proactive and data-driven model to answer questions like: How quickly can we do landed cost simulations based on changing tariff figures? How quickly are we able to model alternative sources? Can we take better advantage of free trade agreements?”
Conflicts of Interests
The Descartes report also expects geopolitical instability and conflict — in regions near the Red Sea, Ukraine, Israel, Iran and even Venezuela — to continue to disrupt the supply chain.
For example, issues surrounding US action in Venezuela may “indirectly affect global logistics conditions through energy market volatility, sanctions compliance challenges, and heightened regional risk premiums, which can influence fuel costs, insurance rates, and broader supply chain planning, even if direct impacts on US import volumes remain limited at this time.”
West Coast ports expanded the share of US imports while East and Gulf Coast volumes lost share, according to the Descartes report. “I think we’ll continue to see Southeast Asia be a large source of imports into the US and that augurs well for the West Coast ports,” Wood notes.
However, Wood suggests that port volumes could change in 2026 because a cargo vessel, the Istanbul Bridge, reached Europe via the Arctic’s Northeast Passage for the first time in October 2025, cutting journey time by at least 50% — a potential game changer. “Consequently, I expect to see changing port-reported metrics due to a reconfiguration of routes,” says Wood.
Continuing with the arctic theme, the Greenland controversy may also have an effect on port performance. “The rhetoric around potential tariffs on countries that don’t support the US bid to take control of Greenland could put the entire trade ‘deal’ negotiated between US and EU at risk,” Wood speculates. “If Europe takes a heavy-handed retaliatory approach, it would likely be a significant negative headwind for ports on the East Coast of the US and even in the Gulf.”
Wood adds, “I don’t think we will see Greenland fade from being a topic of conversation as we think about geopolitical positioning and trade implications going forward for the foreseeable future.”
Preparing for 2026
“Taken together, these dynamics point to a cautious global trade environment entering early 2026, shaped more by risk management than by clear growth momentum,” the Descartes Global Shipping Report observes, recommending that organizations monitor developments in Venezuela, Ukraine and Middle East conflicts; model the effects of the US–China trade framework; and track port volumes and delays to avoid disruptions caused by stressed U.S. maritime logistics infrastructure. Meanwhile, long-term evaluation of supplier and factory location density is advised, to mitigate reliance on over-taxed trade lanes and regions with current or potential conflict.
“The best defense against volatility and uncertainty is organizational resilience,” Wood concludes. “In practice this means integration of traditionally separate disciplines — strategic sourcing, finance and risk, trade and even IT — to unify and instrument those functions to work in a more cohesive way. Resilience will separate winners and losers in an evolving and increasingly complex global trade environment.”
