Will stocking up be enough to stuff Christmas stockings?
China imports surged in July, according to the August Global Shipping Report from Descartes Systems Group, showing imports from China increasing to 923,075 TEUs last month — a 44.4% month-over-month increase and the highest level in 2025 since January.
China’s share of total US imports rose to 35.2% — the highest since early 2025, although still behind the record 41.5% share from February 2022. Hong Kong also posted a significant increase in July, rising 25,185 TEUs (47.8%). Import volumes from other Asian countries also increased in July, including Japan (23.2%), South Korea (16.8%), India (13.6%), Thailand (13.1%), and Vietnam (4.5%). Descartes says the widespread increases suggest a resurgence in Asia-origin shipments among US importers.
“The across-the-board growth marks a reversal from prior months of contraction,” the report states.
Stocking Up
“The rebound follows a sharp contraction in May and June, when the end of the de minimis exemption and elevated uncertainty with respect to tariffs weighed on shipment flows,” the Descartes report states. “The July recovery reflects a combination of seasonal demand and suspected frontloading in response to the 30% temporary tariff rate on Chinese imports set to expire in mid-October.”
With respect to China imports, the two dates looming right now are the repeal of the de minimis exemption scheduled for August 29 – impacting all countries, not just China – and the expected October 15 end of the tariff truce between the US and China that temporarily brought rates down from the staggering peak of 145% to a more reasonable 30%.
The Descartes report speculates that the July surge in Chinese volumes could be driven by shippers trying to import products before these deadlines, stocking up early for the holiday season to bypass the tariffs.
“Frontloading is likely a factor,” confirms Jackson Wood, Director of Industry Strategy, Global Trade Intelligence for Descartes, “and we have anecdotal evidence – some companies have stated publicly that they have pulled forward their inventory to get ahead of new tariffs.”
Uncertain Future
“With the US–China tariff truce set to expire in October and delayed global tariffs now approaching enforcement, businesses face growing uncertainty as both economic and policy signals remain mixed heading into late 2025,” the Descartes report explains.
“While July’s spike may reflect pre-tariff frontloading and temporary policy reprieves, it likely represents a high-water mark rather than a sustained trend, as looming tariff expirations and slowing demand point to potential declines in the months ahead,” the report continues.
“I think a lot of the frontloading has already happened,” Wood explains, “and we know warehouse space is at a premium, so I think that’s going to be a mitigating factor on how aggressively companies continue to pull forward shipments.”
But Wood doesn’t expect a major drop-off either, posing the most probable scenario as a leveling off or return to norms relative to Chinese imports to the US. “But with the volatility we’ve seen with China volumes, it’s difficult to know what that’s going to look like going forward.”
Ongoing Negotiations
“The volume bounce back we saw in July from China is noteworthy, but to me the bigger story is the state of the United States dependence on Chinese suppliers,” Jackson observes. “The U.S. was very aggressive in the early stages of the negotiation with China but look at how quickly the Chinese throttling of some key exports – rare earth magnets and critical minerals – caused the US to reconsider its overall approach.”
These imports from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are essential for a range of US technologies including batteries, electronics, semiconductors and even military equipment. “The PRC controls approximately 90% of the rare earth element and finished product market,” according to the US Congress.
Wood continues, “The US administration assumed, when threatened with loss of access to the US economy, China would agree to some very onerous demands. But China has more leverage than we realized four months ago. I think when the Chinese government started restricting the export of rare earth magnets – and the American manufacturing base was impacted in a very negative way – it was a wake-up call that significantly influenced the position of the US when pushing for a refactored trade relationship with China. The negotiations are perhaps more nuanced than we thought.”
Wood adds, “Based on past events, it wouldn’t surprise me if the tariff ‘pause’ is extended again. I think companies are coming to the realization that the worst-case scenario of exceptionally high tariffs on Chinese imports is unlikely to come to pass – which is good news for shippers.”
However, looking at the big picture of how the constantly changing US tariff policies could impact the economy, Wood concludes, “Uncertainty and volatility are negative from a broader economic perspective because businesses, especially large businesses, thrive on predictability and stability. You could argue that the incremental impact of uncertainty is manageable. Many businesses have dealt with volatility in fuel prices or resource availability, for example. But these tariff policies cause a bigger headwind for businesses in terms of large-scale investment decisions that are much harder to make, and to feel confident about, when you don’t have any sense of certainty about what the geopolitical or regulatory landscape is going to look like six months from now.”
