California’s merchandise export trade “was nominally valued at $16.399 billion in June, according to Beacon Economics’ analysis of the latest statistics released by the U.S. Census Bureau’s Foreign Trade Division, a nominal 4.8% gain over the $15.646 billion in exports the state shipped in June 2025.
Beacon Economics’ monthly analysis of California’s international trade activity found: “Over the same period, however, overall U.S. exports grew by 15.3% to $208.151 billion from $180.538 billion one year earlier. As a result, California’s share of the nation’s merchandise export trade sank to 7.9% from 8.4% in June 2025. Owing primarily to its location along the US-Mexico border and its leading role in America’s petrochemical trade, Texas accounted for 23.0% of all U.S. merchandise exports in the latest numbers.”
“Those are the nominal figures. In real, inflation-adjusted terms, California’s merchandise export trade in June was down 4.4% from a year earlier,” said Jock O’Connell, Beacon Economics’ International Trade Advisor. “Once again, had it not been for the state’s farmers, ranchers, and dairy operators, the export numbers would have been much worse.”
Confusion caused by Trump Administration trade actions
The Beacon report warned that the Trump administration trade and tariff policies continue to cause business uncertainty, impacting California and U.S. exporters, saying, “Section 301 tariffs are being imposed almost across the board on trading partners who have been judged to be insufficiently vigorous in enforcing restrictions on trade in products alleged to have been made by forced labor. Arguably the most egregious use of state-sponsored forced labor is China’s treatment of over one million Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in the Xinjiang Province. Nevertheless, China’s President Xi will be feted by President Trump during an official State Visit to Washington on September 14. These newest levies are also being imposed at the same time the Trump administration is refunding tariffs it had previously charged on goods that entered the country back when the administration was citing the International Emergency Economic Power Act (IEEPA) as its authorization. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the president exceeded his authority under the IEEPA. Reportedly, as much as $70 billion has been refunded.”
| April-June 2025 | April-June 2026 | Change (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| All California Exports | $47.162 Billion | $49.304 Billion | 4.5% |
| Computer & Electronic Products | $13.752 Billion | $14.379 Billion | 4.6% |
| Chemicals | $4.233 Billion | $4.671 Billion | 10.4% |
| Transportation Equipment | $3.879 Billion | $4.413 Billion | 13.8% |
| Agricultural Products | $3.844 Billion | $4.343 Billion | 13.0% |
| Non-Electrical Machinery | $4.917 Billion | $4.170 Billion | -15.2% |
| Food & Kindred Products | $2.772 Billion | $3.093 Billion | 11.6% |
| Misc. Mfg. Commodities | $2.603 Billion | $2.428 Billion | -6.8% |
| Electrical Equipment & Appliances | $2.290 Billion | $2.399 Billion | 4.8% |
| Fabricated Metal Products | $1.528 Billion | $1.653 Billion | 8.2% |
| Petroleum & Coal Products | $1.159 Billion | $1.275 Billion | 10.0% |
| Waste & Scrap | $1.068 Billion | $1.260 Billion | 18.0% |
Iran War fuel spikes
Adding to the uncertainty are high fuel prices caused by the Iran War.
“As Beacon Economics previously noted, diesel drives all supply chains, and so a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz will eventually facilitate international merchandise trade. The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration represent the sand in the gearbox of international trade. Despite being shown evidence to the contrary, the President continues to insist that his tariffs penalize other countries by obliging them to pay the increased cost for the privilege of selling their goods in the United States.”
The reality is that Americans and American businesses suffer from the imposition of Trump administration tariffs: “In the real world, the countries targeted by the White House do not pay these tariffs. There is no mechanism, for example, by which the Chinese government transfers funds to the U.S. Treasury to pay the tariffs imposed on Chinese exports entering American ports. Instead, the tariffs are collected as part of the process of clearing imported merchandise prior to entering the domestic U.S. market. And, more often than not, the party paying the duty is the importer, who will pay the tariff’s cost not in yen or euros or yuan, but in U.S. dollars.”
Negative impact on California exporters
California exporters including agricultural exporters are being undermined by the Trump administration policies in two ways. According to Beacon Economics, “California’s exporters are affected by these tariffs in two ways. First, many exporters depend on imported raw materials or components to manufacture the products they sell both at home and abroad. The new tariffs not only add to the cost of their products, they make it all the more difficult to compete against companies in other countries who are not subject to higher tariffs on the raw material or components they need to import. Second, even if the countries themselves will not be compensating the U.S. Treasury for the tariffs President Trump is imposing against them, the governments of these countries may feel politically compelled to retaliate with tariffs on U.S. imports or by otherwise discouraging imports of U.S. goods.”
Hope for the future?
There may however be light at the end of the tunnel: “Today, an impending deal with Iran has caused financial markets to react effusively, as they have each time the White House has announced a deal or possible deal. Investors expect declines in petroleum prices, while growers worldwide expect lower fertilizer costs. Logistically, both expectations, if they hold, would certainly facilitate growth in global trade.”
