Oil demand in China is suffering from a fresh bout of high-profile virus clampdowns, with a staggered, eight-day lockdown spanning its top financial hub weighing on consumption in the world’s biggest importer.
In Shanghai, a city of 25 million people, peak morning-time congestion on Monday was 45% below year-ago levels as workers had to stay home, according to data by Baidu Inc. In the eastern side of the sprawling city, some highways were closed, with barricades erected at tunnel and bridge entrances, and some logistics companies halted trucking work from local ports. After four days, the lockdown will be shifted to the western half to allow for mass testing.
Shanghai accounts for about 4% of China’s oil consumption, official data show. With the latest outbreaks there and elsewhere, consultancy firm Energy Aspects Ltd. cut its nationwide demand forecasts for March through to June, shaving it by 700,000 barrels a day for this month, 600,000 barrels a day for April, and 150,000 barrels for the other two months.
Industry consultant Rystad Energy estimated oil demand could be reduced by as much as 200,000 barrels a day for the duration of restrictions in Shanghai. Data and analytics firm Kpler noted crude inventories in the city rose to a three-week high as of March 21.
Nationwide gasoline demand has weakened as mobility drops, with consumption in some areas as much as 70% to 80% below pre-virus levels, according to local consultant JLC. With product inventories rising, Chinese state refiners may export gasoline next month, abandoning a plan to halt shipments, it said.
The deepening disruption has also severely affected services into and out of Shanghai’s main air hubs. On Monday, 87% of flights through Pudong airport were canceled, while the city’s Hongqiao airport saw 81% of two-way services scrapped, according to VariFlight, a Chinese aviation data provider.