This week the Asia-Europe basket of the TAC Index has increased 2.74% and is back up to the $3.00 mark. Slowly we are beginning to see the start of the predicted peak season. However, Kuehne + Nagel CEO Detlef Trefzger has told Lloyd’s Loading List that he doesn’t expect the peak season to ‘overheat’ as much as it did last year, suggesting that the current apparent slowdown might be due to consumption changes. The next few weeks will be interesting to watch as we come closer to Singles Day, Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

Aircraft manufacture Boeing has stated that over 2,600 new or converted freighters will be needed over the 20 years to keep up with growing air cargo demand. At the TIACA air cargo forum two weeks ago, Boeing presented its biannual report revealing extensive analysis into the state of the industry and a forecast for the next two decades. Boeing sees the growth in the China Express market and the ever-expanding e-commerce market as leading this need for extra capacity. Predictions from e-commerce specialist Parcelhero support this, suggesting Singles Day will double in the UK this year. As always – the relationship between demand and capacity was a hot topic at TIACA; although Boeing projects huge growth long term, in the immediate future this isn’t what we’re hearing.

An added worry for online traders comes with Trump pushing to leave the postal union in a bid to increase postal rates from China to the West.

If rates are raised next year there could be a strong push to send packages before any changes – whether capacity is available at the time again comes into question.